Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Next French Presidential Election

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 10%

David Lisnard 7.3%

Polymarket

$29,424,153 Vol.

Édouard Philippe 28%

Jordan Bardella 20%

Marine Le Pen 10%

David Lisnard 7.3%

Polymarket

$29,424,153 Vol.

Market icon

Édouard Philippe

$435,283 Vol.

28%

Market icon

Jordan Bardella

$638,976 Vol.

20%

Market icon

Marine Le Pen

$328,775 Vol.

10%

Market icon

David Lisnard

$736,885 Vol.

7%

Market icon

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$242,409 Vol.

7%

Market icon

Dominique de Villepin

$848,502 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Raphaël Glucksmann

$489,721 Vol.

3%

Market icon

François Hollande

$581,036 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Sarah Knafo

$984,417 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Bruno Retailleau

$926,116 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Gabriel Attal

$859,735 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Gérald Darmanin

$333,405 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Sébastien Lecornu

$634,572 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Éric Zemmour

$352,934 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jean Castex

$469,665 Vol.

1%

Market icon

François Ruffin

$322,047 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Clémentine Autain

$1,827,069 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$1,310,741 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Clémence Guetté

$1,623,309 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Laurent Wauquiez

$373,207 Vol.

1%

Market icon

François Asselineau

$1,674,485 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Élisabeth Borne

$1,547,184 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Juan Branco

$283,702 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Marine Tondelier

$410,810 Vol.

1%

Market icon

François Bayrou

$1,573,222 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Valérie Pécresse

$1,027,840 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Manuel Bompard

$932,492 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Olivier Faure

$795,330 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Ségolène Royal

$962,294 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Bernard Cazeneuve

$331,968 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Fabien Roussel

$975,248 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$1,183,577 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Xavier Bertrand

$692,573 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Michel Barnier

$912,250 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mathilde Panot

$1,091,511 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Carole Delga

$722,287 Vol.

<1%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections ending in late March 2026 have driven trader sentiment toward former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe as the narrow favorite at 27.5% implied probability for the 2027 French presidential election, following his decisive reelection as mayor of Le Havre with 47.7%—solidifying his center-right appeal and runoff strength against Rassemblement National challengers. Polls confirm Jordan Bardella's first-round dominance at 34-38%, yet Philippe narrowly prevails in second-round matchups (51.5%-48.5%), while Marine Le Pen trails at 9.5% amid her uncertain appeal on an embezzlement conviction. The tight contest persists amid left-wing fragmentation, undecided party nominations, and over a year until the April 2027 vote; candidacy declarations, fresh polls, or economic shifts could widen gaps.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$29,424,153
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections ending in late March 2026 have driven trader sentiment toward former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe as the narrow favorite at 27.5% implied probability for the 2027 French presidential election, following his decisive reelection as mayor of Le Havre with 47.7%—solidifying his center-right appeal and runoff strength against Rassemblement National challengers. Polls confirm Jordan Bardella's first-round dominance at 34-38%, yet Philippe narrowly prevails in second-round matchups (51.5%-48.5%), while Marine Le Pen trails at 9.5% amid her uncertain appeal on an embezzlement conviction. The tight contest persists amid left-wing fragmentation, undecided party nominations, and over a year until the April 2027 vote; candidacy declarations, fresh polls, or economic shifts could widen gaps.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$29,424,153
End Date
Apr 30, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next French Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, followed by "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next French Presidential Election" has generated $29.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next French Presidential Election," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next French Presidential Election" is "Édouard Philippe" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jordan Bardella" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next French Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.