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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$483,469,685 Vol.

JD Vance 17.8%

Gavin Newsom 16.4%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.2%

Polymarket

$483,469,685 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,593,307 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$7,987,302 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,468,378 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,534,599 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,101,962 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,645,928 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,553,193 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,360,399 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,678,812 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,973,580 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,495,736 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,961,175 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,454,594 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,746,899 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,847,881 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,417,269 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,198,076 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,859,590 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,180,672 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,343,383 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,518,238 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,478,294 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,784,117 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,612,890 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,181,344 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,955,003 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,726,044 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,985,410 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,633,675 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,416,648 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,674,809 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,535,280 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,416,007 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,255,992 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,365,920 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,532,754 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 17.8% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.4% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.3%, reflecting an open field amid high uncertainty two years out. Vance's recent odds decline from over 20% in early March stems from backlash to the Trump administration's Iran policy amid escalating military tensions and rising oil prices, denting GOP momentum and tying the vice president closely to executive handling of the crisis. Newsom gains as the Democratic frontrunner, bolstered by his national profile, while Rubio surges on a strong CPAC 2026 straw poll win over Vance and diplomatic visibility. The race remains tight pending 2026 midterm results, potential candidacies announcements, and foreign policy resolutions that could solidify party nominees or shift electoral math in battleground states.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$483,469,685
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge at 17.8% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.4% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.3%, reflecting an open field amid high uncertainty two years out. Vance's recent odds decline from over 20% in early March stems from backlash to the Trump administration's Iran policy amid escalating military tensions and rising oil prices, denting GOP momentum and tying the vice president closely to executive handling of the crisis. Newsom gains as the Democratic frontrunner, bolstered by his national profile, while Rubio surges on a strong CPAC 2026 straw poll win over Vance and diplomatic visibility. The race remains tight pending 2026 midterm results, potential candidacies announcements, and foreign policy resolutions that could solidify party nominees or shift electoral math in battleground states.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$483,469,685
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $483.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.