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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$491,151,652 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$491,151,652 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,699,336 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$10,152,272 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,535,981 Vol.

10%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,572,253 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,242,921 Vol.

4%

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Kamala Harris

$6,679,850 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,630,312 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,738,397 Vol.

2%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,435,016 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,569,044 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$6,002,820 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$16,038,407 Vol.

1%

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JB Pritzker

$10,480,807 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,885,056 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,822,916 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,445,387 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,250,058 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,914,558 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,417,524 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,594,926 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,903,946 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,243,758 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,772,969 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$6,335,988 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,571,986 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$29,199,083 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,424,333 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,940,133 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$20,149,961 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,512,272 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,789,711 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,745,343 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,754,129 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,846,631 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,605,163 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$30,255,586 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim 17.6% edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom's 16.7% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.3%, underscoring a wide-open race more than two years before Election Day. Vance's recent CPAC straw poll triumph on March 28 solidified his dominance among Republican primary voters, per MAGA-aligned surveys, while Newsom leads early Democratic primary polls like Emerson's and has rapidly closed the gap amid post-2024 party soul-searching. The contest remains tightly contested due to the long timeline, pending 2026 midterms, and Trump administration performance; catalysts like presidential endorsements, economic shifts, or scandals could create separation in swing states and Electoral College math.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$491,151,652
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim 17.6% edge over California Governor Gavin Newsom's 16.7% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential winner, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.3%, underscoring a wide-open race more than two years before Election Day. Vance's recent CPAC straw poll triumph on March 28 solidified his dominance among Republican primary voters, per MAGA-aligned surveys, while Newsom leads early Democratic primary polls like Emerson's and has rapidly closed the gap amid post-2024 party soul-searching. The contest remains tightly contested due to the long timeline, pending 2026 midterms, and Trump administration performance; catalysts like presidential endorsements, economic shifts, or scandals could create separation in swing states and Electoral College math.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$491,151,652
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $491.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.