Israel has conducted airstrikes in three countries this March—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to 77.5% odds for exactly 3 distinct targets, as these fronts dominate ongoing military actions amid the Gaza war and Hezbollah clashes. Recent developments include intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon over the past week, including a major barrage on March 28, and a Syrian airstrike targeting Iranian-linked weapons depots on March 27, reinforcing focus on established theaters without expansion. Probabilities for ≥4 remain at 21.5% due to limited signals of new strikes on Yemen's Houthis or Iran proper before month-end, though Houthi missile launches or major escalations could shift dynamics. Traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation efforts alongside persistent proxy threats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHow many different countries will Israel strike in March?
How many different countries will Israel strike in March?
$275,517 Vol.
$275,517 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
78%
≥4
22%
$275,517 Vol.
$275,517 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
$74,201 Vol.
78%
≥4
$172,139 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel has conducted airstrikes in three countries this March—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to 77.5% odds for exactly 3 distinct targets, as these fronts dominate ongoing military actions amid the Gaza war and Hezbollah clashes. Recent developments include intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon over the past week, including a major barrage on March 28, and a Syrian airstrike targeting Iranian-linked weapons depots on March 27, reinforcing focus on established theaters without expansion. Probabilities for ≥4 remain at 21.5% due to limited signals of new strikes on Yemen's Houthis or Iran proper before month-end, though Houthi missile launches or major escalations could shift dynamics. Traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation efforts alongside persistent proxy threats.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$275,517End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel has conducted airstrikes in three countries this March—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to 77.5% odds for exactly 3 distinct targets, as these fronts dominate ongoing military actions amid the Gaza war and Hezbollah clashes. Recent developments include intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon over the past week, including a major barrage on March 28, and a Syrian airstrike targeting Iranian-linked weapons depots on March 27, reinforcing focus on established theaters without expansion. Probabilities for ≥4 remain at 21.5% due to limited signals of new strikes on Yemen's Houthis or Iran proper before month-end, though Houthi missile launches or major escalations could shift dynamics. Traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation efforts alongside persistent proxy threats.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$275,517End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israel has conducted airstrikes in three countries this March—Gaza (Palestine), Lebanon, and Syria—driving trader consensus to 77.5% odds for exactly 3 distinct targets, as these fronts dominate ongoing military actions amid the Gaza war and Hezbollah clashes. Recent developments include intensified strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon over the past week, including a major barrage on March 28, and a Syrian airstrike targeting Iranian-linked weapons depots on March 27, reinforcing focus on established theaters without expansion. Probabilities for ≥4 remain at 21.5% due to limited signals of new strikes on Yemen's Houthis or Iran proper before month-end, though Houthi missile launches or major escalations could shift dynamics. Traders weigh diplomatic de-escalation efforts alongside persistent proxy threats.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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