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Politics·Primaries

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner

Christine Drazan 47%

Ed Diehl 37%

Chris Dudley 14%

Robert Neuman 3.0%

Polymarket

$60,282 Vol.

Christine Drazan 47%

Ed Diehl 37%

Chris Dudley 14%

Robert Neuman 3.0%

Polymarket

$60,282 Vol.

Christine Drazan

$15,610 Vol.

47%

Ed Diehl

$3,241 Vol.

37%

Chris Dudley

$8,417 Vol.

14%

Robert Neuman

$6,305 Vol.

3%

Danielle Bethell

$5,322 Vol.

2%

Chael Sonnen

$9,827 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Duyck

$9,327 Vol.

<1%

Caleb Kintz

$2,232 Vol.

<1%

Brad T. Peters

$0 Vol.

<1%

David Medina

$0 Vol.

<1%

Patrick Kopke-Hales

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.With ballots set to mail in about three weeks for Oregon's May 19 Republican gubernatorial primary, trader consensus prices Christine Drazan as a slim favorite at 46.5% implied probability, closely pursued by Ed Diehl at 37% and Chris Dudley at 13.5%, underscoring a fragmented field lacking public primary polls. Drazan's edge stems from her 2022 nomination and statewide name recognition after a near-upset against Democrat Tina Kotek, while Diehl gains from grassroots momentum leading the No Tax referendum that rapidly collected over 250,000 signatures to block a $4.3 billion tax hike. Dudley's position reflects a recent $1 million donation from Phil Knight boosting his cash to lead at $1.69 million. A Coos Bay candidate forum last month and the Oregon GOP debate on April 16 could tip dynamics through voter impressions on taxes, public safety, and leadership.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$60,282
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.With ballots set to mail in about three weeks for Oregon's May 19 Republican gubernatorial primary, trader consensus prices Christine Drazan as a slim favorite at 46.5% implied probability, closely pursued by Ed Diehl at 37% and Chris Dudley at 13.5%, underscoring a fragmented field lacking public primary polls. Drazan's edge stems from her 2022 nomination and statewide name recognition after a near-upset against Democrat Tina Kotek, while Diehl gains from grassroots momentum leading the No Tax referendum that rapidly collected over 250,000 signatures to block a $4.3 billion tax hike. Dudley's position reflects a recent $1 million donation from Phil Knight boosting his cash to lead at $1.69 million. A Coos Bay candidate forum last month and the Oregon GOP debate on April 16 could tip dynamics through voter impressions on taxes, public safety, and leadership.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$60,282
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 6:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Christine Drazan" at 47%, followed by "Ed Diehl" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" has generated $60.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" is "Christine Drazan" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ed Diehl" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Governor Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.