Market icon
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Market icon
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Iván Cepeda Castro 72%

Paloma Valencia 20.2%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.4%

Juan Carlos Pinzón <1%

Polymarket

$1,659,222 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 72%

Paloma Valencia 20.2%

Abelardo de la Espriella 4.4%

Juan Carlos Pinzón <1%

Polymarket

$1,659,222 Vol.

Market icon

Iván Cepeda Castro

$48,107 Vol.

72%

Market icon

Paloma Valencia

$207,055 Vol.

20%

Market icon

Abelardo de la Espriella

$465,857 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$29,133 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Luis Gilberto Murillo

$92,233 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gustavo Bolívar

$68,847 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Juan Manuel Galán

$66,162 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Sergio Fajardo

$48,651 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Vicky Dávila

$234,490 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

David Luna Sánchez

$147,778 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Juan Daniel Oviedo

$32,879 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mauricio Cárdenas

$21,318 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Enrique Peñalosa

$25,905 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Roy Barreras

$25,603 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Daniel Quintero

$19,762 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Claudia López

$50,883 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Germán Vargas Lleras

$38,058 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Leftist senator Iván Cepeda Castro leads Polymarket trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential plurality, reflecting his consistent top position in recent polls around 34-36% following the Historic Pact coalition's legislative election gains on March 8 despite falling short of a majority. Center-right senator Paloma Valencia has surged to 20.2% odds after her strong Democratic Center primary performance, climbing to 22% in the latest CNC survey amid a fragmented right where far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 4.4%. Traders price a competitive three-way race but favor Cepeda's momentum from left-wing turnout, with upcoming debates and polls potentially shifting dynamics ahead of a likely runoff.

Leftist senator Iván Cepeda Castro leads Polymarket trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential plurality, reflecting his consistent top position in recent polls around 34-36% following the Historic Pact coalition's legislative election gains on March 8 despite falling short of a majority. Center-right senator Paloma Valencia has surged to 20.2% odds after her strong Democratic Center primary performance, climbing to 22% in the latest CNC survey amid a fragmented right where far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 4.4%. Traders price a competitive three-way race but favor Cepeda's momentum from left-wing turnout, with upcoming debates and polls potentially shifting dynamics ahead of a likely runoff.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Leftist senator Iván Cepeda Castro leads Polymarket trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential plurality, reflecting his consistent top position in recent polls around 34-36% following the Historic Pact coalition's legislative election gains on March 8 despite falling short of a majority. Center-right senator Paloma Valencia has surged to 20.2% odds after her strong Democratic Center primary performance, climbing to 22% in the latest CNC survey amid a fragmented right where far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 4.4%. Traders price a competitive three-way race but favor Cepeda's momentum from left-wing turnout, with upcoming debates and polls potentially shifting dynamics ahead of a likely runoff.

Leftist senator Iván Cepeda Castro leads Polymarket trader consensus at 71.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential plurality, reflecting his consistent top position in recent polls around 34-36% following the Historic Pact coalition's legislative election gains on March 8 despite falling short of a majority. Center-right senator Paloma Valencia has surged to 20.2% odds after her strong Democratic Center primary performance, climbing to 22% in the latest CNC survey amid a fragmented right where far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 4.4%. Traders price a competitive three-way race but favor Cepeda's momentum from left-wing turnout, with upcoming debates and polls potentially shifting dynamics ahead of a likely runoff.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

" Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 72%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" has generated $1.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.