Recent municipal elections concluding March 22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities, as Jordan Bardella's party failed to capture major cities despite hype, curbing far-right momentum. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor, coupled with the Elabe poll (March 25-27) showing him at 25.5% first-round support—up sharply—and a narrow runoff edge over Bardella (51.5-48.5%), drives trader consensus pricing Philippe highest at 28% implied probability versus Bardella's 23.5%. Left fragmentation, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12%, keeps the field wide open; unity on the center-right or Marine Le Pen's summer appeal ruling on her candidacy ban could widen gaps ahead of the April 2027 presidential first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNext French Presidential Election
Next French Presidential Election
Édouard Philippe 28%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 7%
$23,739,181 Vol.
$23,739,181 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
Édouard Philippe
28%
Jordan Bardella
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
9%
Marine Le Pen
7%
Dominique de Villepin
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
4%
David Lisnard
3%
Bruno Retailleau
3%
Sarah Knafo
3%
François Hollande
3%
Gabriel Attal
2%
Sébastien Lecornu
2%
Gérald Darmanin
1%
Éric Zemmour
1%
Jean Castex
1%
Juan Branco
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
1%
Marine Tondelier
<1%
Ségolène Royal
<1%
Michel Barnier
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
<1%
Fabien Roussel
<1%
François Asselineau
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
<1%
Manuel Bompard
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
<1%
Olivier Faure
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
François Bayrou
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%
Clémence Guetté
<1%
Carole Delga
<1%
Mathilde Panot
<1%
Édouard Philippe 28%
Jordan Bardella 24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 9%
Marine Le Pen 7%
$23,739,181 Vol.
$23,739,181 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
Édouard Philippe
$380,996 Vol.
28%
Jordan Bardella
$596,594 Vol.
24%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$213,810 Vol.
9%
Marine Le Pen
$283,238 Vol.
7%
Dominique de Villepin
$791,148 Vol.
5%
Raphaël Glucksmann
$442,072 Vol.
4%
David Lisnard
$658,115 Vol.
3%
Bruno Retailleau
$876,362 Vol.
3%
Sarah Knafo
$939,018 Vol.
3%
François Hollande
$537,004 Vol.
3%
Gabriel Attal
$824,123 Vol.
2%
Sébastien Lecornu
$575,652 Vol.
2%
Gérald Darmanin
$304,711 Vol.
1%
Éric Zemmour
$331,634 Vol.
1%
Jean Castex
$444,769 Vol.
1%
Juan Branco
$251,000 Vol.
1%
François Ruffin
$278,894 Vol.
1%
Bernard Cazeneuve
$282,264 Vol.
1%
Marine Tondelier
$334,671 Vol.
<1%
Ségolène Royal
$831,787 Vol.
<1%
Michel Barnier
$785,349 Vol.
<1%
Laurent Wauquiez
$283,205 Vol.
<1%
Fabien Roussel
$822,657 Vol.
<1%
François Asselineau
$1,113,006 Vol.
<1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
$1,108,105 Vol.
<1%
Valérie Pécresse
$949,868 Vol.
<1%
Élisabeth Borne
$973,001 Vol.
<1%
Manuel Bompard
$687,350 Vol.
<1%
Xavier Bertrand
$421,678 Vol.
<1%
Olivier Faure
$649,972 Vol.
<1%
Clémentine Autain
$1,291,813 Vol.
<1%
François Bayrou
$945,209 Vol.
<1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet
$789,721 Vol.
<1%
Clémence Guetté
$1,060,162 Vol.
<1%
Carole Delga
$679,101 Vol.
<1%
Mathilde Panot
$1,002,187 Vol.
<1%
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections concluding March 22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities, as Jordan Bardella's party failed to capture major cities despite hype, curbing far-right momentum. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor, coupled with the Elabe poll (March 25-27) showing him at 25.5% first-round support—up sharply—and a narrow runoff edge over Bardella (51.5-48.5%), drives trader consensus pricing Philippe highest at 28% implied probability versus Bardella's 23.5%. Left fragmentation, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12%, keeps the field wide open; unity on the center-right or Marine Le Pen's summer appeal ruling on her candidacy ban could widen gaps ahead of the April 2027 presidential first round.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$23,739,181End Date
Apr 30, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Recent municipal elections concluding March 22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities, as Jordan Bardella's party failed to capture major cities despite hype, curbing far-right momentum. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor, coupled with the Elabe poll (March 25-27) showing him at 25.5% first-round support—up sharply—and a narrow runoff edge over Bardella (51.5-48.5%), drives trader consensus pricing Philippe highest at 28% implied probability versus Bardella's 23.5%. Left fragmentation, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12%, keeps the field wide open; unity on the center-right or Marine Le Pen's summer appeal ruling on her candidacy ban could widen gaps ahead of the April 2027 presidential first round.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volume
$23,739,181End Date
Apr 30, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent municipal elections concluding March 22 exposed National Rally vulnerabilities, as Jordan Bardella's party failed to capture major cities despite hype, curbing far-right momentum. Édouard Philippe's decisive reelection as Le Havre mayor, coupled with the Elabe poll (March 25-27) showing him at 25.5% first-round support—up sharply—and a narrow runoff edge over Bardella (51.5-48.5%), drives trader consensus pricing Philippe highest at 28% implied probability versus Bardella's 23.5%. Left fragmentation, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12%, keeps the field wide open; unity on the center-right or Marine Le Pen's summer appeal ruling on her candidacy ban could widen gaps ahead of the April 2027 presidential first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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