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Elections·Pennsylvania Primary

PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Pennsylvania Primary

PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner

Bob Brooks 69%

Ryan Crosswell 22%

Lamont McClure 9%

Carol Obando-Derstine 2.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Bob Brooks 69%

Ryan Crosswell 22%

Lamont McClure 9%

Carol Obando-Derstine 2.4%

Polymarket
NEW

Bob Brooks

$662 Vol.

69%

Ryan Crosswell

$1,084 Vol.

22%

Lamont McClure

$1,505 Vol.

9%

Carol Obando-Derstine

$3,015 Vol.

2%

Lewis Shupe

$1,416 Vol.

1%

Aiden Gonzalez

$408 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Bethlehem firefighter Bob Brooks at 69% implied probability to win the PA-07 Democratic primary on May 19, driven by his high-profile endorsements from Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator Bernie Sanders, and unions including the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association and SEIU Pennsylvania State Council, bolstering his appeal to working-class voters in this Lehigh Valley swing district. Former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell holds 22% on strong fundraising and VoteVets backing, positioning him as the chief challenger amid a competitive field that narrowed to four main contenders after March filings. Yesterday's first televised debate on WFMZ saw Brooks, Crosswell, former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure (8.5%), and Casey aide Carol Obando-Derstine (backed by ex-Rep. Susan Wild) emphasize unity against Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie without personal attacks, reinforcing Brooks' frontrunner status absent new polling shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,090
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 1:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Bethlehem firefighter Bob Brooks at 69% implied probability to win the PA-07 Democratic primary on May 19, driven by his high-profile endorsements from Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator Bernie Sanders, and unions including the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association and SEIU Pennsylvania State Council, bolstering his appeal to working-class voters in this Lehigh Valley swing district. Former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell holds 22% on strong fundraising and VoteVets backing, positioning him as the chief challenger amid a competitive field that narrowed to four main contenders after March filings. Yesterday's first televised debate on WFMZ saw Brooks, Crosswell, former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure (8.5%), and Casey aide Carol Obando-Derstine (backed by ex-Rep. Susan Wild) emphasize unity against Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie without personal attacks, reinforcing Brooks' frontrunner status absent new polling shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,090
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 1:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bob Brooks" at 69%, followed by "Ryan Crosswell" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Bob Brooks" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ryan Crosswell" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "PA-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.