Trader consensus on Polymarket prices just 6% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, with probabilities falling to 1.4% for 80+, reflecting Iran's IRGC selective blockade amid its war with the US and Israel that has slashed daily transits to 4-5 vessels max—95% below normal—via vetting, multimillion-dollar tolls, and turnbacks like two Chinese container ships on March 27. This chokepoint disruption, handling 20% of global oil flows, has driven Brent crude above $111 per barrel (up 36% since late February), war-risk insurance premiums to 1-3% of hull value ($5-7.5 million for large tankers), and VLCC rates to multi-decade highs. With the market resolving March 31, potential US escorts or diplomatic breakthroughs remain key catalysts for volume surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$581,071 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
20+
6%
40+
3%
60+
3%
80+
1%
$581,071 Vol.
20+
$261,799 Vol.
6%
40+
$99,857 Vol.
3%
60+
$82,983 Vol.
3%
80+
$136,433 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices just 6% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, with probabilities falling to 1.4% for 80+, reflecting Iran's IRGC selective blockade amid its war with the US and Israel that has slashed daily transits to 4-5 vessels max—95% below normal—via vetting, multimillion-dollar tolls, and turnbacks like two Chinese container ships on March 27. This chokepoint disruption, handling 20% of global oil flows, has driven Brent crude above $111 per barrel (up 36% since late February), war-risk insurance premiums to 1-3% of hull value ($5-7.5 million for large tankers), and VLCC rates to multi-decade highs. With the market resolving March 31, potential US escorts or diplomatic breakthroughs remain key catalysts for volume surges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$581,071End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices just 6% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, with probabilities falling to 1.4% for 80+, reflecting Iran's IRGC selective blockade amid its war with the US and Israel that has slashed daily transits to 4-5 vessels max—95% below normal—via vetting, multimillion-dollar tolls, and turnbacks like two Chinese container ships on March 27. This chokepoint disruption, handling 20% of global oil flows, has driven Brent crude above $111 per barrel (up 36% since late February), war-risk insurance premiums to 1-3% of hull value ($5-7.5 million for large tankers), and VLCC rates to multi-decade highs. With the market resolving March 31, potential US escorts or diplomatic breakthroughs remain key catalysts for volume surges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above __ for any date between market creation and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$581,071End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices just 6% implied probability for 20+ ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any March day, with probabilities falling to 1.4% for 80+, reflecting Iran's IRGC selective blockade amid its war with the US and Israel that has slashed daily transits to 4-5 vessels max—95% below normal—via vetting, multimillion-dollar tolls, and turnbacks like two Chinese container ships on March 27. This chokepoint disruption, handling 20% of global oil flows, has driven Brent crude above $111 per barrel (up 36% since late February), war-risk insurance premiums to 1-3% of hull value ($5-7.5 million for large tankers), and VLCC rates to multi-decade highs. With the market resolving March 31, potential US escorts or diplomatic breakthroughs remain key catalysts for volume surges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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