Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at 99.9%, driven by stalled US-brokered peace talks that concluded without breakthrough in Florida on March 22 and have remained paused amid Middle East escalations and ongoing frontline fighting. Russian forces continued offensives in eastern Ukraine through late March, capturing settlements while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian infrastructure, underscoring active hostilities with no signs of de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 30 statement expressing openness to an Easter truce on energy attacks highlights potential for limited pauses post-deadline but rules out a full ceasefire tomorrow. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement in the final hours could alter this, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts show such rapid shifts as rare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
$29,469,269 Vol.
$29,469,269 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$29,469,269 Vol.
$29,469,269 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at 99.9%, driven by stalled US-brokered peace talks that concluded without breakthrough in Florida on March 22 and have remained paused amid Middle East escalations and ongoing frontline fighting. Russian forces continued offensives in eastern Ukraine through late March, capturing settlements while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian infrastructure, underscoring active hostilities with no signs of de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 30 statement expressing openness to an Easter truce on energy attacks highlights potential for limited pauses post-deadline but rules out a full ceasefire tomorrow. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement in the final hours could alter this, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts show such rapid shifts as rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
Volume
$29,469,269End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at 99.9%, driven by stalled US-brokered peace talks that concluded without breakthrough in Florida on March 22 and have remained paused amid Middle East escalations and ongoing frontline fighting. Russian forces continued offensives in eastern Ukraine through late March, capturing settlements while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian infrastructure, underscoring active hostilities with no signs of de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 30 statement expressing openness to an Easter truce on energy attacks highlights potential for limited pauses post-deadline but rules out a full ceasefire tomorrow. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement in the final hours could alter this, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts show such rapid shifts as rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$29,469,269End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus prices a near-certain "No" on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at 99.9%, driven by stalled US-brokered peace talks that concluded without breakthrough in Florida on March 22 and have remained paused amid Middle East escalations and ongoing frontline fighting. Russian forces continued offensives in eastern Ukraine through late March, capturing settlements while Ukraine conducted strikes on Russian infrastructure, underscoring active hostilities with no signs of de-escalation. President Zelenskyy's March 30 statement expressing openness to an Easter truce on energy attacks highlights potential for limited pauses post-deadline but rules out a full ceasefire tomorrow. Only an unforeseen diplomatic announcement in the final hours could alter this, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts show such rapid shifts as rare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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