Market icon
World·Middle East

Netanyahu out by...?

Market icon
World·Middle East

Netanyahu out by...?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$85,882,292 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$85,882,292 Vol.

Polymarket

March 31

$78,852,761 Vol.

<1%

April 30

$3,397,430 Vol.

3%

June 30

$2,666,550 Vol.

14%

December 31

$965,925 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

The Knesset's narrow approval of Israel's record 2026 wartime state budget early Monday, backed by ultra-Orthodox coalition partners despite opposition filibusters, has stabilized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government and averted snap elections he polls suggest he would lose. This 11th-hour passage, amid an ongoing Iran conflict that has failed to boost his support, explains traders' low implied probabilities for near-term exit—around 1% by March 31 and 14% by June 30—while pricing a 46% chance by December 31, reflecting persistent coalition strains, poor polling, and scheduled legislative elections by October 27. Upcoming no-confidence votes or war escalations could still pressure the minority government.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

27%
Market icon

Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?

<1%
Market icon

Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?

31%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Netanyahu out by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 46%, followed by "June 30" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Netanyahu out by...?" has generated $85.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Netanyahu out by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Netanyahu out by...?" is "December 31" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Netanyahu out by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.