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Politics·Bibi

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

Market icon
Politics·Bibi

Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?

27% chance
Polymarket

$44,825 Vol.

27% chance
Polymarket

$44,825 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Israeli President Isaac Herzog continues reviewing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's November 2025 pardon request for ongoing corruption trials, with his office requesting supplemental information yesterday on Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu's March 24 pro-pardon recommendation citing national security needs amid Iran tensions. However, the Justice Ministry's Pardons Department opinion earlier this month deemed a pre-conviction pardon improper and unprecedented for a sitting leader, prioritizing rule of law despite U.S. President Trump's public pressure. Traders' 73.5% consensus against a pardon by June 30 reflects entrenched judicial opposition, political divisions in the Knesset, and procedural delays in the process, leaving slim odds for approval absent a trial conviction or major shift.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog continues reviewing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's November 2025 pardon request for ongoing corruption trials, with his office requesting supplemental information yesterday on Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu's March 24 pro-pardon recommendation citing national security needs amid Iran tensions. However, the Justice Ministry's Pardons Department opinion earlier this month deemed a pre-conviction pardon improper and unprecedented for a sitting leader, prioritizing rule of law despite U.S. President Trump's public pressure. Traders' 73.5% consensus against a pardon by June 30 reflects entrenched judicial opposition, political divisions in the Knesset, and procedural delays in the process, leaving slim odds for approval absent a trial conviction or major shift.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or other formal grant of clemency from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for any charges by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Israeli President Isaac Herzog continues reviewing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's November 2025 pardon request for ongoing corruption trials, with his office requesting supplemental information yesterday on Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu's March 24 pro-pardon recommendation citing national security needs amid Iran tensions. However, the Justice Ministry's Pardons Department opinion earlier this month deemed a pre-conviction pardon improper and unprecedented for a sitting leader, prioritizing rule of law despite U.S. President Trump's public pressure. Traders' 73.5% consensus against a pardon by June 30 reflects entrenched judicial opposition, political divisions in the Knesset, and procedural delays in the process, leaving slim odds for approval absent a trial conviction or major shift.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog continues reviewing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's November 2025 pardon request for ongoing corruption trials, with his office requesting supplemental information yesterday on Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu's March 24 pro-pardon recommendation citing national security needs amid Iran tensions. However, the Justice Ministry's Pardons Department opinion earlier this month deemed a pre-conviction pardon improper and unprecedented for a sitting leader, prioritizing rule of law despite U.S. President Trump's public pressure. Traders' 73.5% consensus against a pardon by June 30 reflects entrenched judicial opposition, political divisions in the Knesset, and procedural delays in the process, leaving slim odds for approval absent a trial conviction or major shift.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 27% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 27¢, the market collectively assigns a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?" has generated $44.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?" is 27% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 27% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.