Middle East Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

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US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

January 17

1%

January 18

3%

January 17

1%

January 18

3%

$63m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 15

<1%

January 16

<1%

January 15

<1%

January 16

<1%

$7m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

20%

chance

$11m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

4%

chance

$7m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

14%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? card icon

Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?

<1%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

28%

chance

$6m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...? card icon

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

January 16

6%

January 17

2%

January 16

6%

January 17

2%

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
US/Israel strikes Iran by...? card icon

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

January 31

29%

February 15

40%

January 31

29%

February 15

40%

$4m Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

38%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

37%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

9%

chance

$379k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

21%

chance

$396k Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Next Country US Strikes card icon

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia

65%

Syria

19%

Somalia

65%

Syria

19%

$297k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

52%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Will Israel strike Gaza on...? card icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

January 16

1%

January 17

2%

January 16

1%

January 17

2%

$1m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

22%

chance

$847k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? card icon

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

January 31

17%

March 31, 2026

46%

January 31

17%

March 31, 2026

46%

$1m Vol.