Israel Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

magnifier

Geopolitics

Geopolitics

magnifier
US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 15

<1%

January 16

<1%

January 15

<1%

January 16

<1%

$7m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

20%

chance

$11m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

14%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? card icon

Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?

<1%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

28%

chance

$6m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Will Israel strike Lebanon on...? card icon

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

January 16

6%

January 17

1%

January 16

6%

January 17

1%

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
US/Israel strikes Iran by...? card icon

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

January 31

30%

February 15

39%

January 31

30%

February 15

39%

$4m Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

37%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

38%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

9%

chance

$379k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

52%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Will Israel strike Gaza on...? card icon

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

January 16

2%

January 17

1%

January 16

2%

January 17

1%

$1m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

22%

chance

$848k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? card icon

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

January 31

18%

March 31, 2026

45%

January 31

18%

March 31, 2026

45%

$1m Vol.

Iran Strike on Israel by...? card icon

Iran Strike on Israel by...?

January 15

<1%

January 31

16%

January 15

<1%

January 31

16%

$468k Vol.

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

40%

chance

$1m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? card icon

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

January 31

2%

June 30

17%

January 31

2%

June 30

17%

$515k Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...? card icon

Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

March 31, 2026

49%

June 30, 2026

61%

March 31, 2026

49%

June 30, 2026

61%

$4m Vol.

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31? card icon

What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?

Nuclear

17%

Oil/Gas

8%

Nuclear

17%

Oil/Gas

8%

$116k Vol.