Iran Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

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US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

January 17

1%

January 18

3%

January 17

1%

January 18

3%

$63m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 15

<1%

January 16

<1%

January 15

<1%

January 16

<1%

$7m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

20%

chance

$11m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?

4%

chance

$7m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

14%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? card icon

Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?

<1%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

28%

chance

$6m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
US/Israel strikes Iran by...? card icon

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

January 31

30%

February 15

39%

January 31

30%

February 15

39%

$4m Vol.

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...? card icon

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?

January 31

3%

March 31

12%

January 31

3%

March 31

12%

$6m Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

37%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

37%

chance

$3m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

9%

chance

$379k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

21%

chance

$397k Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Next Country US Strikes card icon

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia

64%

Syria

19%

Somalia

64%

Syria

19%

$301k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

52%

chance

$2m Vol.

repeat-3Daily
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

22%

chance

$848k Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Iran Strike on Israel by...? card icon

Iran Strike on Israel by...?

January 15

<1%

January 31

15%

January 15

<1%

January 31

15%

$467k Vol.

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

40%

chance

$1m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly