**Recent Houthi missile and drone strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport in early October 2026, including attacks on October 8–11 that killed at least 13 people and injured hundreds, have triggered repeated suspensions of operations at the facility, widespread flight cancellations exceeding 30–70% on affected days, and expanded international aviation warnings from the FAA (caution through December 10), EASA, and others citing missile risks, GNSS interference, and air-defense debris.** Saudi authorities have issued targeted NOTAMs and safety assessments but have not released a general order suspending commercial aviation across the Jeddah Flight Information Region (OEJD). This distinction—localized airport disruptions versus full FIR closure—explains why traders assign the December 31 outcome only around 18–22% implied probability, with earlier deadlines trading even lower. Ongoing Yemen conflict dynamics, Houthi threats excluding holy-city airports, and Saudi economic priorities continue to shape assessments of whether a qualifying nationwide closure occurs before year-end.