Ongoing regional tensions with Iran and its proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, remain the dominant driver of Israeli airspace management decisions. Missile and drone threats have prompted multiple short-notice restrictions and partial closures throughout 2026, particularly during US-Israeli strikes and retaliatory exchanges earlier in the year. As of November 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR stays open to civilian traffic but operates under active EASA advisories through mid-November, with authorities prepared to implement brief shutdowns of no more than 12 hours followed by limited operations if new escalations occur. Recent reports of renewed war risks and foreign carrier suspensions underscore persistent volatility, while aviation officials prioritize rapid reopenings once threats subside. Trader consensus on near-term closure probabilities reflects these security assessments and the potential for sudden diplomatic or military developments to alter flight restrictions.