Recent missile and drone threats from Iran and its regional proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, remain the dominant driver of Israeli airspace risk following repeated 2026 closures tied to US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent retaliations. October 2026 saw heightened alerts after reported Iranian ballistic missile tests and Israeli fighter jet exercises near the Iranian border, prompting temporary flight restrictions and airline suspensions even as the Tel Aviv FIR stayed open. EASA maintains cautionary guidance through mid-November 2026, while authorities plan for any new conflict-related closures to last no more than 12 hours. Upcoming elections, diplomatic signals, and proxy activity in the Strait of Hormuz or Lebanon could trigger short-notice NOTAMs or full shutdowns, directly influencing trader assessments of closure causes.