Israeli airspace remains open under heightened security protocols amid persistent missile and drone threats tied to the Israel-Iran conflict and associated groups. Officials have prepared contingency plans limiting any future closure to no more than 12 hours, followed by restricted operations, reflecting efforts to minimize disruption while addressing risks. EASA maintains advisories through mid-November due to potential interceptions and debris, though no broad civilian closure has occurred since earlier 2026 exchanges of strikes. This context of managed volatility without immediate escalation underpins trader assessments of limited near-term probability for a qualifying closure by year-end, distinct from holiday-related measures.