Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 88% implied probability because the Assembly of Experts selected him as Supreme Leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes, establishing formal continuity through the constitutional body responsible for appointments. Recent developments have introduced limited uncertainty, including his prolonged public absence amid reports of injuries, conflicting official statements affirming his health, and September reports from sources close to Qom clerics and IRGC figures indicating plans to choose a replacement once hostilities end. These factors sustain modest probabilities for “No Head of State” and alternative candidates, yet traders view the existing selection and regime emphasis on stability as the dominant near-term outcome through the end of 2026.