Iran’s ongoing military exchanges with the United States have repeatedly placed Jordan in the crosshairs, as Tehran frames strikes on U.S. facilities there as legitimate retaliation for American actions against Iranian tankers and assets. In September and early October 2026, Iran launched multiple ballistic missile barrages toward Jordanian territory, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claiming targets at sites including Al-Azraq Air Base; Jordanian air defenses intercepted most projectiles, reporting no casualties but prompting strong official condemnations and a summons of Iran’s chargé d’affaires. Jordan hosts significant U.S. forces and receives substantial American aid, making it a frontline state in the conflict, while bilateral diplomatic meetings in New York and Amman have focused on de-escalation, ceasefires, and respect for sovereignty. Traders assessing near-term targeting probabilities weigh these repeated escalatory cycles against King Abdullah’s explicit warnings that Jordanian security is a red line and ongoing regional talks aimed at containing spillover.