Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

82%

Yes82%No18%

June 30

84%

Yes84%No16%

$14M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$22M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$29M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

19%

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes3%No97%

December 31

28%

Yes28%No72%

$3M Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes7%No93%

December 31

33%

Yes33%No67%

$631K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

39%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$10M Vol.

Monthly

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Yes6%No94%

23%

Yes23%No77%

$252K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

$996K Vol.

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Brazil

Yes7%No93%

Ukraine

Yes6%No94%

$916K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

21%

chance

Yes

$79K Vol.

Monthly

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

53%

chance

Yes

$323K Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$135K Vol.

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

14%

chance

Yes

$46K Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

12%

chance

Yes

$30K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes6%No94%

June 30, 2026

32%

Yes32%No68%

$2M Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

$22K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

United Kingdom

83%

Yes83%No17%

Israel

61%

Yes61%No39%

$129K Vol.

All

Iran

Oil

Ukraine

Venezuela

Ukraine Peace Deal

Ukraine Map

Gaza

Israel

Sudan

China

Thailand-Cambodia

Middle East

Foreign Policy

India-Pakistan

South Korea

Yemen

Syria

Turkey

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

82%

Yes82%No18%

June 30

84%

Yes84%No16%

$14M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$22M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$29M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

19%

chance

Yes

$2M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes3%No97%

December 31

28%

Yes28%No72%

$3M Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes7%No93%

December 31

33%

Yes33%No67%

$631K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

39%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$10M Vol.

Monthly

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Yes6%No94%

23%

Yes23%No77%

$252K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

17%

chance

Yes

$996K Vol.

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Brazil

Yes7%No93%

Ukraine

Yes6%No94%

$916K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

21%

chance

Yes

$79K Vol.

Monthly

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

53%

chance

Yes

$323K Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$135K Vol.

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

14%

chance

Yes

$46K Vol.

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

12%

chance

Yes

$30K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes6%No94%

June 30, 2026

32%

Yes32%No68%

$2M Vol.

NATO article 5 before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

$22K Vol.

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

United Kingdom

83%

Yes83%No17%

Israel

61%

Yes61%No39%

$129K Vol.

Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?