Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

78%

Yes78%No22%

June 30

83%

Yes83%No17%

$18M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$23M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$10M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

37%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$29M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

19%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$163K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

51%

chance

Yes

$345K Vol.

Monthly

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

India

21%

Yes21%No79%

Brazil

Yes7%No93%

$929K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes7%No93%

December 31

34%

Yes34%No66%

$647K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes4%No96%

December 31

28%

Yes28%No72%

$3M Vol.

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Yes6%No94%

23%

Yes23%No77%

$205K Vol.

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

chance

Yes

$165K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes6%No94%

June 30, 2026

32%

Yes32%No68%

$2M Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

June 30, 2026

10%

Yes10%No90%

December 31, 2026

22%

Yes22%No78%

$2M Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

25%

chance

Yes

$83K Vol.

Monthly

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

chance

Yes

$48K Vol.

Monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

$73K Vol.

All

Iran

Oil

Ukraine

Venezuela

Ukraine Peace Deal

Ukraine Map

Gaza

Israel

Sudan

China

Thailand-Cambodia

Middle East

Foreign Policy

India-Pakistan

South Korea

Yemen

Syria

Turkey

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

78%

Yes78%No22%

June 30

83%

Yes83%No17%

$18M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$23M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$10M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

37%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$29M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

19%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$163K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

51%

chance

Yes

$345K Vol.

Monthly

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

India

21%

Yes21%No79%

Brazil

Yes7%No93%

$929K Vol.

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes7%No93%

December 31

34%

Yes34%No66%

$647K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes4%No96%

December 31

28%

Yes28%No72%

$3M Vol.

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Yes6%No94%

23%

Yes23%No77%

$205K Vol.

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

chance

Yes

$165K Vol.

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes6%No94%

June 30, 2026

32%

Yes32%No68%

$2M Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

June 30, 2026

10%

Yes10%No90%

December 31, 2026

22%

Yes22%No78%

$2M Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

25%

chance

Yes

$83K Vol.

Monthly

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

chance

Yes

$48K Vol.

Monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

13%

chance

Yes

$73K Vol.

Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

US strike on Mexico by...?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Ukraine election held by...?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

US strike on Mexico by...?

How many different countries will the US strike in 2026?

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Ukraine election held by...?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?