Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

95%

Yes95%No5%

June 30

96%

Yes96%No4%

$22M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$23M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

16%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

39%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$10M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$194K Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes6%No94%

December 31

32%

Yes32%No68%

$3M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$29M Vol.

Monthly

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes7%No93%

December 31

39%

Yes39%No61%

$656K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

India

14%

Yes14%No86%

Ukraine

Yes5%No95%

$936K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

42%

chance

Yes

$170K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

50%

chance

Yes

$351K Vol.

Monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

14%

chance

Yes

$77K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

chance

Yes

$51K Vol.

Monthly

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

25%

chance

Yes

$84K Vol.

Monthly

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

chance

Yes

$167K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes2%No98%

June 30, 2026

16%

Yes16%No84%

$1M Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

June 30, 2026

10%

Yes10%No90%

December 31, 2026

23%

Yes23%No77%

$2M Vol.

All

Iran

Oil

Ukraine

Venezuela

Ukraine Peace Deal

Ukraine Map

Gaza

Israel

Sudan

China

Thailand-Cambodia

Middle East

Foreign Policy

India-Pakistan

South Korea

Yemen

Syria

Turkey

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

95%

Yes95%No5%

June 30

96%

Yes96%No4%

$22M Vol.

Weekly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$23M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$5M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

16%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

39%

chance

Yes

$11M Vol.

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

11%

chance

Yes

$10M Vol.

Monthly

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$194K Vol.

US strike on Mexico by...?

March 31

Yes6%No94%

December 31

32%

Yes32%No68%

$3M Vol.

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

11%

chance

Yes

$29M Vol.

Monthly

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

March 31

Yes7%No93%

December 31

39%

Yes39%No61%

$656K Vol.

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$1M Vol.

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

India

14%

Yes14%No86%

Ukraine

Yes5%No95%

$936K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

42%

chance

Yes

$170K Vol.

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

50%

chance

Yes

$351K Vol.

Monthly

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

14%

chance

Yes

$77K Vol.

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

chance

Yes

$51K Vol.

Monthly

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

25%

chance

Yes

$84K Vol.

Monthly

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

chance

Yes

$167K Vol.

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

Yes2%No98%

June 30, 2026

16%

Yes16%No84%

$1M Vol.

Ukraine election held by...?

June 30, 2026

10%

Yes10%No90%

December 31, 2026

23%

Yes23%No77%

$2M Vol.

Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Ukraine election called by...?

Ukraine election held by...?

Foreign Policy

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

US strike on Mexico by...?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Which countries will join the Board of Peace by March 31?

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?

Ukraine election called by...?

Ukraine election held by...?