Foreign Policy Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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Geopolitics

Geopolitics

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Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? card icon

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

20%

chance

$12m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? card icon

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

13%

chance

$7m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? card icon

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

13%

chance

$9m Vol.

repeat-3
US strike on Mexico by...? card icon

US strike on Mexico by...?

January 31

4%

March 31

12%

January 31

4%

March 31

12%

$1m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? card icon

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

42%

chance

$7m Vol.

repeat-3
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? card icon

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

3%

chance

$1m Vol.

repeat-3Monthly
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? card icon

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

27%

chance

$30k Vol.

repeat-3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...? card icon

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

January 31

3%

December 31

18%

January 31

3%

December 31

18%

$132k Vol.

repeat-3Weekly
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? card icon

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

14%

chance

$40k Vol.

repeat-3
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? card icon

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

19%

chance

$362k Vol.

repeat-3
Ukraine election called by...? card icon

Ukraine election called by...?

March 31, 2026

10%

June 30, 2026

23%

March 31, 2026

10%

June 30, 2026

23%

$1m Vol.

Ukraine election held by...? card icon

Ukraine election held by...?

June 30, 2026

8%

December 31, 2026

38%

June 30, 2026

8%

December 31, 2026

38%

$2m Vol.