Ukraine Peace Deal

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

chance

Yes

$25M Vol.

Oscars 2026
Predictions

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

38%

chance

Yes

$12M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

19%

chance

Yes

$3M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?

chance

Yes

$585K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?

chance

Yes

$314K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

16%

chance

Yes

$34K Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

26%

chance

Yes

$506K Vol.

EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?

December 31

29%

Yes29%No71%

June 30

Yes6%No94%

$67K Vol.

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

21%

chance

Yes

$122K Vol.

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?

June 30

13%

Yes13%No87%

March 31

Yes1%No99%

$1M Vol.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay

22%

chance

Yes

$363K Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?

16%

chance

Yes

NEW

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?

chance

Yes

$59K Vol.

Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

June 30

14%

Yes14%No86%

March 31

Yes5%No95%

$215K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

28%

chance

Yes

$175K Vol.

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

22%

chance

Yes

$90K Vol.

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

28%

chance

Yes

$56K Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

13%

chance

Yes

$58K Vol.

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

33%

chance

Yes

$81K Vol.

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?

12%

chance

Yes

$106K Vol.

Monthly

All

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