NATO allies continue to manage the Russia-Ukraine conflict without direct attacks on member territory that would meet Article 5 thresholds, keeping invocation risk low through mid-2027. Recent summits, including reaffirmations of collective defense commitments and large-scale exercises simulating responses, have reinforced deterrence while avoiding escalation. Hybrid activities remain below the armed-attack level, and diplomatic channels plus restrained Western support for Ukraine have prevented spillover. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94 percent because no verifiable military or diplomatic trigger has materialized in the resolution window, consistent with the clause's historical use only once since 1949.