Traders assign a 94% probability against NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027 because the Russia-Ukraine war has shown no signs of direct attacks on alliance territory that would trigger collective defense obligations. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced an explicit reaffirmation of ironclad Article 5 commitments and sustained military aid pledges to Ukraine, underscoring deterrence without escalation. Ongoing peace negotiations and limited Russian battlefield advances have kept hybrid threats below the threshold for allied response, while no comparable crises involving NATO members have emerged in the Middle East or elsewhere. With only months remaining in 2026, the absence of imminent triggers aligns with current market pricing.