President Trump's late February 2026 announcement initiated U.S. military strikes on Iran alongside Israel, targeting nuclear sites, security infrastructure, and leadership, including reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, escalating into open conflict without congressional war declaration. Over 10,000 targets hit have degraded Iran's capabilities, prompting retaliatory missile attacks wounding U.S. troops and spiking oil prices. In the past week, Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy plants for 10 days amid U.S.-mediated ceasefire talks, which he claims are progressing, though Tehran dismisses proposals and continues assaults on Israel and Gulf allies. Traders watch for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed escalation ahead of potential congressional authorization debates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Trump declare war on Iran by...?
Will Trump declare war on Iran by...?
$548,238 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
March 31
2%
April 30
5%
$548,238 Vol.
March 31
$211,312 Vol.
2%
April 30
$9,905 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's late February 2026 announcement initiated U.S. military strikes on Iran alongside Israel, targeting nuclear sites, security infrastructure, and leadership, including reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, escalating into open conflict without congressional war declaration. Over 10,000 targets hit have degraded Iran's capabilities, prompting retaliatory missile attacks wounding U.S. troops and spiking oil prices. In the past week, Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy plants for 10 days amid U.S.-mediated ceasefire talks, which he claims are progressing, though Tehran dismisses proposals and continues assaults on Israel and Gulf allies. Traders watch for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed escalation ahead of potential congressional authorization debates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volume
$548,238End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's late February 2026 announcement initiated U.S. military strikes on Iran alongside Israel, targeting nuclear sites, security infrastructure, and leadership, including reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, escalating into open conflict without congressional war declaration. Over 10,000 targets hit have degraded Iran's capabilities, prompting retaliatory missile attacks wounding U.S. troops and spiking oil prices. In the past week, Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy plants for 10 days amid U.S.-mediated ceasefire talks, which he claims are progressing, though Tehran dismisses proposals and continues assaults on Israel and Gulf allies. Traders watch for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed escalation ahead of potential congressional authorization debates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran."
General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war.
Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war.
The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$548,238End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's late February 2026 announcement initiated U.S. military strikes on Iran alongside Israel, targeting nuclear sites, security infrastructure, and leadership, including reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, escalating into open conflict without congressional war declaration. Over 10,000 targets hit have degraded Iran's capabilities, prompting retaliatory missile attacks wounding U.S. troops and spiking oil prices. In the past week, Trump paused strikes on Iranian energy plants for 10 days amid U.S.-mediated ceasefire talks, which he claims are progressing, though Tehran dismisses proposals and continues assaults on Israel and Gulf allies. Traders watch for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed escalation ahead of potential congressional authorization debates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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