Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with initial disruptions by U.S. Cyber Command to Iranian command-and-control networks, traders price a 97.5% chance of no further U.S. cyberattack by March 31, reflecting the absence of recent announcements, intelligence signals, or escalatory rhetoric from the Pentagon or White House indicating new offensive cyber actions in the narrowing three-day window. Recent focus has shifted to defensive measures against Iranian-affiliated hackers targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, such as the March 12 Stryker medical device breach and FBI warnings of retaliatory threats. While the conflict persists, structural barriers like attribution challenges and operational priorities favor restraint; late-breaking intelligence on IRGC movements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or proxy escalations could still prompt a shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
$342,451 Vol.
$342,451 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$342,451 Vol.
$342,451 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with initial disruptions by U.S. Cyber Command to Iranian command-and-control networks, traders price a 97.5% chance of no further U.S. cyberattack by March 31, reflecting the absence of recent announcements, intelligence signals, or escalatory rhetoric from the Pentagon or White House indicating new offensive cyber actions in the narrowing three-day window. Recent focus has shifted to defensive measures against Iranian-affiliated hackers targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, such as the March 12 Stryker medical device breach and FBI warnings of retaliatory threats. While the conflict persists, structural barriers like attribution challenges and operational priorities favor restraint; late-breaking intelligence on IRGC movements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or proxy escalations could still prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$342,451End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with initial disruptions by U.S. Cyber Command to Iranian command-and-control networks, traders price a 97.5% chance of no further U.S. cyberattack by March 31, reflecting the absence of recent announcements, intelligence signals, or escalatory rhetoric from the Pentagon or White House indicating new offensive cyber actions in the narrowing three-day window. Recent focus has shifted to defensive measures against Iranian-affiliated hackers targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, such as the March 12 Stryker medical device breach and FBI warnings of retaliatory threats. While the conflict persists, structural barriers like attribution challenges and operational priorities favor restraint; late-breaking intelligence on IRGC movements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or proxy escalations could still prompt a shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$342,451End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran under Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with initial disruptions by U.S. Cyber Command to Iranian command-and-control networks, traders price a 97.5% chance of no further U.S. cyberattack by March 31, reflecting the absence of recent announcements, intelligence signals, or escalatory rhetoric from the Pentagon or White House indicating new offensive cyber actions in the narrowing three-day window. Recent focus has shifted to defensive measures against Iranian-affiliated hackers targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, such as the March 12 Stryker medical device breach and FBI warnings of retaliatory threats. While the conflict persists, structural barriers like attribution challenges and operational priorities favor restraint; late-breaking intelligence on IRGC movements, diplomatic breakthroughs, or proxy escalations could still prompt a shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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