Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
$344,438 Vol.
$344,438 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$344,438 Vol.
$344,438 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$344,438End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.
To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.
Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.
Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.
Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$344,438End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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