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Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?

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Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?

Mar 31

Mar 31

2% chance
Polymarket

$344,438 Vol.

2% chance
Polymarket

$344,438 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.

Trader consensus prices "No" at 97.9% for a US cyberattack on Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official announcements, intelligence leaks, or escalatory signals in the war's final days. Initial US-Israeli strikes on February 28 incorporated cyber operations against Iranian government sites and naval bases, but recent developments center on Iranian retaliatory cyberattacks—such as the March 12 breach of US medical firm Stryker—and heightened US warnings for defensive measures against Iran-linked hackers targeting banks and infrastructure. With no reported US Cyber Command offensives since early March, traders view kinetic military actions and diplomacy as dominant amid de-escalation signals. Late-breaking escalations, proxy attacks, or regime provocations could still prompt a shift before resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?" has generated $344.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.