Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early March strikes prompted a swift leadership transition to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, by mid-March, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating power and suppressing earlier 2026 protests sparked by economic woes. Recent assessments from Western officials and analysts indicate no unraveling, as remaining hardline leaders remain emboldened despite military setbacks and assassinations. Absent mass defections, popular uprisings, or IRGC fractures—none evident in the past 30 days—traders view structural barriers like repression and institutional loyalty as outweighing regime change pressures before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$25,513,684 Vol.
$25,513,684 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$25,513,684 Vol.
$25,513,684 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early March strikes prompted a swift leadership transition to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, by mid-March, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating power and suppressing earlier 2026 protests sparked by economic woes. Recent assessments from Western officials and analysts indicate no unraveling, as remaining hardline leaders remain emboldened despite military setbacks and assassinations. Absent mass defections, popular uprisings, or IRGC fractures—none evident in the past 30 days—traders view structural barriers like repression and institutional loyalty as outweighing regime change pressures before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$25,513,684End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early March strikes prompted a swift leadership transition to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, by mid-March, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating power and suppressing earlier 2026 protests sparked by economic woes. Recent assessments from Western officials and analysts indicate no unraveling, as remaining hardline leaders remain emboldened despite military setbacks and assassinations. Absent mass defections, popular uprisings, or IRGC fractures—none evident in the past 30 days—traders view structural barriers like repression and institutional loyalty as outweighing regime change pressures before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,513,945End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 86.5% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by June 30, reflecting its demonstrated resilience amid the ongoing US-Israeli war. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in early March strikes prompted a swift leadership transition to his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, by mid-March, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating power and suppressing earlier 2026 protests sparked by economic woes. Recent assessments from Western officials and analysts indicate no unraveling, as remaining hardline leaders remain emboldened despite military setbacks and assassinations. Absent mass defections, popular uprisings, or IRGC fractures—none evident in the past 30 days—traders view structural barriers like repression and institutional loyalty as outweighing regime change pressures before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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