Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
$313,754 Vol.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory.
Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless.
Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory.
Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless.
Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Created At: Jan 7, 2026, 11:46 PM UTC
Volume
$313,754End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 7, 2026, 11:46 PM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$313,754 Vol.
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
About
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a nuclear strike on Iranian soil by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory.
Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless.
Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on official Iranian embassies or consulates located outside of Iranian territory will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “nuclear strike” is defined as a confirmed launch of any nuclear weapon, including but not limited to fission weapons, fusion weapons, thermonuclear devices, or hydrogen bomb warheads, launched by Israeli military forces via missile, aircraft, or other delivery system towards Iranian ground territory.
Launched delivery systems carrying nuclear warheads that are intercepted or that fail to produce a nuclear detonation will qualify regardless.
Actions such as radiological weapons or “dirty bombs” (i.e., devices intended to disperse radioactive material without a nuclear detonation), conventional (non-nuclear) airstrikes, or any other conventional use of force conducted by Israeli forces will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$313,754End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Jan 7, 2026, 11:46 PM UTCResolver
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