A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the Iran-backed group to withdraw fighters north of the Litani River, with Lebanese Armed Forces deploying to the south alongside UNIFIL peacekeepers, but includes no explicit disarmament provisions despite longstanding UN Resolution 1701 demands. Sporadic violations, including Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, have tested compliance since implementation. Hezbollah's new leadership post-Hassan Nasrallah's September killing shows no public signals of relinquishing weapons, amid Lebanon's fragile politics where the militia retains significant parliamentary and military sway. Traders weigh low disarmament likelihood absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, with upcoming UN Security Council reviews and potential escalation risks as key monitors through any resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill Hezbollah disarm by...?
Will Hezbollah disarm by...?
$853,711 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
December 31
23%
$853,711 Vol.
March 31
$837,774 Vol.
<1%
December 31
$15,937 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the Iran-backed group to withdraw fighters north of the Litani River, with Lebanese Armed Forces deploying to the south alongside UNIFIL peacekeepers, but includes no explicit disarmament provisions despite longstanding UN Resolution 1701 demands. Sporadic violations, including Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, have tested compliance since implementation. Hezbollah's new leadership post-Hassan Nasrallah's September killing shows no public signals of relinquishing weapons, amid Lebanon's fragile politics where the militia retains significant parliamentary and military sway. Traders weigh low disarmament likelihood absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, with upcoming UN Security Council reviews and potential escalation risks as key monitors through any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ET
Volume
$853,711End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the Iran-backed group to withdraw fighters north of the Litani River, with Lebanese Armed Forces deploying to the south alongside UNIFIL peacekeepers, but includes no explicit disarmament provisions despite longstanding UN Resolution 1701 demands. Sporadic violations, including Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, have tested compliance since implementation. Hezbollah's new leadership post-Hassan Nasrallah's September killing shows no public signals of relinquishing weapons, amid Lebanon's fragile politics where the militia retains significant parliamentary and military sway. Traders weigh low disarmament likelihood absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, with upcoming UN Security Council reviews and potential escalation risks as key monitors through any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volume
$853,711End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective November 27, 2024, requires the Iran-backed group to withdraw fighters north of the Litani River, with Lebanese Armed Forces deploying to the south alongside UNIFIL peacekeepers, but includes no explicit disarmament provisions despite longstanding UN Resolution 1701 demands. Sporadic violations, including Israeli airstrikes and Hezbollah rocket fire, have tested compliance since implementation. Hezbollah's new leadership post-Hassan Nasrallah's September killing shows no public signals of relinquishing weapons, amid Lebanon's fragile politics where the militia retains significant parliamentary and military sway. Traders weigh low disarmament likelihood absent major diplomatic breakthroughs, with upcoming UN Security Council reviews and potential escalation risks as key monitors through any resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions