Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit __ by end of April?

Market icon
Economy·Iran

Will gas hit __ by end of April?

Apr 30

Apr 30

NEW

$131,922 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$131,922 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $5.00

$4,967 Vol.

7%

↑ $4.75

$2,446 Vol.

18%

↑ $4.50

$2,512 Vol.

57%

↑ $4.25

$3,951 Vol.

94%

↑ $4.15

$3,111 Vol.

97%

↓ $3.95

$1,586 Vol.

42%

↓ $3.85

$2,147 Vol.

36%

↓ $3.75

$444 Vol.

15%

↓ $3.50

$75 Vol.

9%

↓ $3.25

$1 Vol.

11%

↓ $3.00

$555 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Escalating Middle East tensions from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran since late February have disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, propelling WTI crude above $110 per barrel and pushing the AAA national average regular gasoline price to $4.08 per gallon as of April 2— a 35% surge in one month that explains traders' near-certainty (100%) of exceeding $4.05 by April 30, 95% odds for $4.15, and 46% for $4.50, while pricing $5.00 at just 7%. Spring break travel and seasonal demand amplify upward pressure, though de-escalation signals, potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, or refinery restarts could cap rises. The next EIA outlook on April 7 will reassess amid pre-conflict forecasts now at $3.34 annual average.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$131,922
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".Escalating Middle East tensions from U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran since late February have disrupted oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, propelling WTI crude above $110 per barrel and pushing the AAA national average regular gasoline price to $4.08 per gallon as of April 2— a 35% surge in one month that explains traders' near-certainty (100%) of exceeding $4.05 by April 30, 95% odds for $4.15, and 46% for $4.50, while pricing $5.00 at just 7%. Spring break travel and seasonal demand amplify upward pressure, though de-escalation signals, potential Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, or refinery restarts could cap rises. The next EIA outlook on April 7 will reassess amid pre-conflict forecasts now at $3.34 annual average.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price).

The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Volume
$131,922
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 11:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

Related

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Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on April 30?

21%
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Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

98%
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Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?

17%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will gas hit __ by end of April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $4.05" at 100%, followed by "↑ $4.15" at 97%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" has generated $131.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will gas hit __ by end of April?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" is "↑ $4.05" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ $4.15" at 97%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will gas hit __ by end of April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.