Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of formal diplomatic breakthroughs despite recent U.S. pressure. President Trump urged Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel during speeches on March 27 and 28 amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, claiming the Accords had proven resilient under stress. Senate Republicans introduced the Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act on March 26 to bolster ties among existing partners against Iranian threats, but Gulf states have voiced concerns over U.S. protection gaps. No public negotiations have advanced for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, or Syria, with historical demands for Palestinian progress and regional instability posing significant barriers to timely expansion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of formal diplomatic breakthroughs despite recent U.S. pressure. President Trump urged Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel during speeches on March 27 and 28 amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, claiming the Accords had proven resilient under stress. Senate Republicans introduced the Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act on March 26 to bolster ties among existing partners against Iranian threats, but Gulf states have voiced concerns over U.S. protection gaps. No public negotiations have advanced for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, or Syria, with historical demands for Palestinian progress and regional instability posing significant barriers to timely expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$1,236End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of formal diplomatic breakthroughs despite recent U.S. pressure. President Trump urged Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel during speeches on March 27 and 28 amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, claiming the Accords had proven resilient under stress. Senate Republicans introduced the Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act on March 26 to bolster ties among existing partners against Iranian threats, but Gulf states have voiced concerns over U.S. protection gaps. No public negotiations have advanced for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, or Syria, with historical demands for Palestinian progress and regional instability posing significant barriers to timely expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,236End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 81% implied probability against a new country joining the Abraham Accords by June 30, driven by the absence of formal diplomatic breakthroughs despite recent U.S. pressure. President Trump urged Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel during speeches on March 27 and 28 amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, claiming the Accords had proven resilient under stress. Senate Republicans introduced the Abraham Accords Defense Cooperation Act on March 26 to bolster ties among existing partners against Iranian threats, but Gulf states have voiced concerns over U.S. protection gaps. No public negotiations have advanced for Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, or Syria, with historical demands for Palestinian progress and regional instability posing significant barriers to timely expansion.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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