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Politics·Middle East

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Market icon
Politics·Middle East

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu 44%

Naftali Bennett 24%

Gadi Eizenkot 17.2%

Yair Lapid 2.9%

Polymarket

$3,645,752 Vol.

Benjamin Netanyahu 44%

Naftali Bennett 24%

Gadi Eizenkot 17.2%

Yair Lapid 2.9%

Polymarket

$3,645,752 Vol.

Benjamin Netanyahu

$450,432 Vol.

44%

Naftali Bennett

$781,965 Vol.

24%

Gadi Eizenkot

$492,666 Vol.

17%

Yair Lapid

$296,853 Vol.

3%

Benny Gantz

$174,921 Vol.

2%

Avigdor Lieberman

$328,266 Vol.

2%

Yariv Levin

$108,409 Vol.

2%

Itamar Ben Gvir

$109,698 Vol.

1%

Yair Golan

$249,618 Vol.

1%

Gideon Sa’ar

$0 Vol.

1%

Yossi Cohen

$332,202 Vol.

1%

Ayelet Shaked

$64,730 Vol.

1%

Yoaz Hendel

$0 Vol.

<1%

Moshe Feiglin

$255,991 Vol.

<1%

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls for Israel's 2026 Knesset election, due by late October under proportional representation, show Likud leading with 27-28 seats, positioning Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored next prime minister at 43.5% implied probability due to his coalition-building edge amid fragmented opposition blocs hovering near deadlock at 58-62 seats each. A March 19 Channel 12 survey marked former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtaking Naftali Bennett's list (16 vs. 15 seats), boosting Eisenkot to 17.3% as a centrist security hawk alternative, while Bennett slipped to 24% despite prior consolidation. Netanyahu holds steady head-to-head advantages (e.g., 42% vs. Eisenkot's 33% in a March 26 Midgam poll), but coalition negotiations remain uncertain amid budget pressures and ongoing Gaza operations, with no snap election triggered.

Recent polls for Israel's 2026 Knesset election, due by late October under proportional representation, show Likud leading with 27-28 seats, positioning Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored next prime minister at 43.5% implied probability due to his coalition-building edge amid fragmented opposition blocs hovering near deadlock at 58-62 seats each. A March 19 Channel 12 survey marked former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtaking Naftali Bennett's list (16 vs. 15 seats), boosting Eisenkot to 17.3% as a centrist security hawk alternative, while Bennett slipped to 24% despite prior consolidation. Netanyahu holds steady head-to-head advantages (e.g., 42% vs. Eisenkot's 33% in a March 26 Midgam poll), but coalition negotiations remain uncertain amid budget pressures and ongoing Gaza operations, with no snap election triggered.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polls for Israel's 2026 Knesset election, due by late October under proportional representation, show Likud leading with 27-28 seats, positioning Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored next prime minister at 43.5% implied probability due to his coalition-building edge amid fragmented opposition blocs hovering near deadlock at 58-62 seats each. A March 19 Channel 12 survey marked former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtaking Naftali Bennett's list (16 vs. 15 seats), boosting Eisenkot to 17.3% as a centrist security hawk alternative, while Bennett slipped to 24% despite prior consolidation. Netanyahu holds steady head-to-head advantages (e.g., 42% vs. Eisenkot's 33% in a March 26 Midgam poll), but coalition negotiations remain uncertain amid budget pressures and ongoing Gaza operations, with no snap election triggered.

Recent polls for Israel's 2026 Knesset election, due by late October under proportional representation, show Likud leading with 27-28 seats, positioning Benjamin Netanyahu as the trader-favored next prime minister at 43.5% implied probability due to his coalition-building edge amid fragmented opposition blocs hovering near deadlock at 58-62 seats each. A March 19 Channel 12 survey marked former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party overtaking Naftali Bennett's list (16 vs. 15 seats), boosting Eisenkot to 17.3% as a centrist security hawk alternative, while Bennett slipped to 24% despite prior consolidation. Netanyahu holds steady head-to-head advantages (e.g., 42% vs. Eisenkot's 33% in a March 26 Midgam poll), but coalition negotiations remain uncertain amid budget pressures and ongoing Gaza operations, with no snap election triggered.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Benjamin Netanyahu" at 44%, followed by "Naftali Bennett" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" has generated $3.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" is "Benjamin Netanyahu" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Naftali Bennett" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.