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Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·Primary Elections

NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner

Cait Conley 60%

Beth Davidson 18%

Peter Chatzky 13.3%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.8%

Polymarket

$49,817 Vol.

Cait Conley 60%

Beth Davidson 18%

Peter Chatzky 13.3%

Effie Phillips-Staley 4.8%

Polymarket

$49,817 Vol.

Cait Conley

$25,142 Vol.

60%

Beth Davidson

$21,451 Vol.

18%

Peter Chatzky

$2,530 Vol.

13%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$0 Vol.

5%

John Cappello

$0 Vol.

3%

Jessica Reinmann

$693 Vol.

1%

Mike Sacks

$0 Vol.

1%

John Sullivan

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, propelled by her recent endorsements from the New Dems Action Fund on March 24 and LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, alongside her combat veteran credentials and strong fundraising exceeding $1.9 million as of late 2025. Beth Davidson trails at 18% buoyed by name recognition as a Rockland County legislator and early polls showing her competitive, including a March survey giving her a six-point lead amid high undecideds from a February Lake Research poll (Conley 18%, Davidson 17%, 41% undecided). Peter Chatzky's 13.4% reflects self-funding over $6 million but recent backlash from a March 19 New York Times report on his past bawdy Facebook posts. With filing deadline April 6 approaching in this crowded eight-candidate field, upcoming debates and PAC spending could shift the closely contested race in the Hudson Valley battleground.

Trader consensus favors Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, propelled by her recent endorsements from the New Dems Action Fund on March 24 and LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, alongside her combat veteran credentials and strong fundraising exceeding $1.9 million as of late 2025. Beth Davidson trails at 18% buoyed by name recognition as a Rockland County legislator and early polls showing her competitive, including a March survey giving her a six-point lead amid high undecideds from a February Lake Research poll (Conley 18%, Davidson 17%, 41% undecided). Peter Chatzky's 13.4% reflects self-funding over $6 million but recent backlash from a March 19 New York Times report on his past bawdy Facebook posts. With filing deadline April 6 approaching in this crowded eight-candidate field, upcoming debates and PAC spending could shift the closely contested race in the Hudson Valley battleground.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, propelled by her recent endorsements from the New Dems Action Fund on March 24 and LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, alongside her combat veteran credentials and strong fundraising exceeding $1.9 million as of late 2025. Beth Davidson trails at 18% buoyed by name recognition as a Rockland County legislator and early polls showing her competitive, including a March survey giving her a six-point lead amid high undecideds from a February Lake Research poll (Conley 18%, Davidson 17%, 41% undecided). Peter Chatzky's 13.4% reflects self-funding over $6 million but recent backlash from a March 19 New York Times report on his past bawdy Facebook posts. With filing deadline April 6 approaching in this crowded eight-candidate field, upcoming debates and PAC spending could shift the closely contested race in the Hudson Valley battleground.

Trader consensus favors Cait Conley at 59.5% to win the NY-17 Democratic primary on June 23, propelled by her recent endorsements from the New Dems Action Fund on March 24 and LGBTQ+ Victory Fund on March 3, alongside her combat veteran credentials and strong fundraising exceeding $1.9 million as of late 2025. Beth Davidson trails at 18% buoyed by name recognition as a Rockland County legislator and early polls showing her competitive, including a March survey giving her a six-point lead amid high undecideds from a February Lake Research poll (Conley 18%, Davidson 17%, 41% undecided). Peter Chatzky's 13.4% reflects self-funding over $6 million but recent backlash from a March 19 New York Times report on his past bawdy Facebook posts. With filing deadline April 6 approaching in this crowded eight-candidate field, upcoming debates and PAC spending could shift the closely contested race in the Hudson Valley battleground.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cait Conley" at 60%, followed by "Beth Davidson" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $49.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Cait Conley" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Beth Davidson" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NY-17 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.