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Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

Market icon
Politics·Primaries

Who will advance from the California Governor primary?

$404,800 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$404,800 Vol.

Polymarket

Eric Swalwell

$10,995 Vol.

64%

Steve Hilton

$31,139 Vol.

55%

Chad Bianco

$11,953 Vol.

36%

Tom Steyer

$17,631 Vol.

31%

Elaine Culotti

$0 Vol.

19%

Katie Porter

$0 Vol.

15%

Matt Mahan

$10,156 Vol.

14%

Xavier Becerra

$3,178 Vol.

8%

Tony Thurmond

$966 Vol.

6%

Betty Yee

$2,635 Vol.

6%

David Thelen

$750 Vol.

5%

Ethan Agarwal

$2,470 Vol.

5%

Sharifah Hardie

$0 Vol.

4%

Ché Ahn

$14,826 Vol.

4%

Jimmy Parker

$0 Vol.

4%

Dylan Colbert

$13,305 Vol.

3%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$11,452 Vol.

3%

Daniel Mercuri

$8,319 Vol.

3%

Ryan Tillman

$1,179 Vol.

3%

Derek Grasty

$1,039 Vol.

3%

Nicki Minaj

$0 Vol.

3%

Leo Zacky

$0 Vol.

2%

David Serpa

$3,833 Vol.

2%

Javen Allen

$0 Vol.

11%

Leonard Jackson

$0 Vol.

2%

Raji Rab

$0 Vol.

2%

Carolina Buhler

$6,191 Vol.

2%

Kyle Langford

$10,357 Vol.

2%

Nicholas Thompson

$0 Vol.

2%

Butch Ware

$7,512 Vol.

2%

Thunder Parley

$49,022 Vol.

2%

Zoltan Istvan

$11,336 Vol.

1%

Ramsey Robinson

$0 Vol.

1%

Brandon Jones

$33,473 Vol.

1%

Ian Calderon

$103,383 Vol.

1%

Sophia Brink

$37,751 Vol.

1%

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, 2026, the top vote-getters regardless of party advance to the November general election, heightening risks for Democrats amid a fragmented field of eight candidates including Rep. Eric Swalwell, Rep. Katie Porter, and billionaire Tom Steyer. Recent polls from mid-March, including a California Democratic Party-funded survey and others showing Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton leading, reflect Democratic vote-splitting while Republicans consolidate behind their two entrants. A March 26 court ruling barred a Green Party candidate from the ballot, and resurfaced scrutiny over Swalwell's past ties to a suspected Chinese spy—amid reports of FBI file preparations—could further erode his polling edge. No major Democratic consolidations have occurred, with a planned debate recently canceled.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$404,800
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.In California's nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2, 2026, the top vote-getters regardless of party advance to the November general election, heightening risks for Democrats amid a fragmented field of eight candidates including Rep. Eric Swalwell, Rep. Katie Porter, and billionaire Tom Steyer. Recent polls from mid-March, including a California Democratic Party-funded survey and others showing Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton leading, reflect Democratic vote-splitting while Republicans consolidate behind their two entrants. A March 26 court ruling barred a Green Party candidate from the ballot, and resurfaced scrutiny over Swalwell's past ties to a suspected Chinese spy—amid reports of FBI file preparations—could further erode his polling edge. No major Democratic consolidations have occurred, with a planned debate recently canceled.

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.

This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
Volume
$404,800
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 64%, followed by "Steve Hilton" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" has generated $404.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" is "Eric Swalwell" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will advance from the California Governor primary?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.