Trader consensus on Polymarket prices United Russia at 68% to achieve the largest net seat gain—2026 seats minus its 324 from 2021—in the State Duma election set for September 18–20, buoyed by incumbency and Kremlin support, though recent polls show its party-list support at 29–41% amid rising food and utility prices eroding ratings. New People's 20.8% odds reflect its rise as a permitted "liberal" opposition, polling 5–10% and eyed by pro-Kremlin sources for second place, potentially capitalizing on United Russia's expected single-mandate losses in up to 30 challenging regions like the "Red Belt" and Far East, as party leaders conceded March 23. LDPR and KPRF trail at 7.1% and 1.6%, stable in mid-single digits per March FOM and WCIOM surveys. Primaries run through late May via Gosuslugi verification, with war veterans gaining vote bonuses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) 69%
New People (NL) 21.6%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.6%
$4,415,316 Vol.
$4,415,316 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
69%
New People (NL)
22%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
7%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
2%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 69%
New People (NL) 21.6%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.6%
$4,415,316 Vol.
$4,415,316 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$1,230,258 Vol.
69%
New People (NL)
$278,376 Vol.
22%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$2,037,427 Vol.
7%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$256,363 Vol.
2%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$226,929 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$196,195 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$189,767 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices United Russia at 68% to achieve the largest net seat gain—2026 seats minus its 324 from 2021—in the State Duma election set for September 18–20, buoyed by incumbency and Kremlin support, though recent polls show its party-list support at 29–41% amid rising food and utility prices eroding ratings. New People's 20.8% odds reflect its rise as a permitted "liberal" opposition, polling 5–10% and eyed by pro-Kremlin sources for second place, potentially capitalizing on United Russia's expected single-mandate losses in up to 30 challenging regions like the "Red Belt" and Far East, as party leaders conceded March 23. LDPR and KPRF trail at 7.1% and 1.6%, stable in mid-single digits per March FOM and WCIOM surveys. Primaries run through late May via Gosuslugi verification, with war veterans gaining vote bonuses.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$4,415,316End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices United Russia at 68% to achieve the largest net seat gain—2026 seats minus its 324 from 2021—in the State Duma election set for September 18–20, buoyed by incumbency and Kremlin support, though recent polls show its party-list support at 29–41% amid rising food and utility prices eroding ratings. New People's 20.8% odds reflect its rise as a permitted "liberal" opposition, polling 5–10% and eyed by pro-Kremlin sources for second place, potentially capitalizing on United Russia's expected single-mandate losses in up to 30 challenging regions like the "Red Belt" and Far East, as party leaders conceded March 23. LDPR and KPRF trail at 7.1% and 1.6%, stable in mid-single digits per March FOM and WCIOM surveys. Primaries run through late May via Gosuslugi verification, with war veterans gaining vote bonuses.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,415,316End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices United Russia at 68% to achieve the largest net seat gain—2026 seats minus its 324 from 2021—in the State Duma election set for September 18–20, buoyed by incumbency and Kremlin support, though recent polls show its party-list support at 29–41% amid rising food and utility prices eroding ratings. New People's 20.8% odds reflect its rise as a permitted "liberal" opposition, polling 5–10% and eyed by pro-Kremlin sources for second place, potentially capitalizing on United Russia's expected single-mandate losses in up to 30 challenging regions like the "Red Belt" and Far East, as party leaders conceded March 23. LDPR and KPRF trail at 7.1% and 1.6%, stable in mid-single digits per March FOM and WCIOM surveys. Primaries run through late May via Gosuslugi verification, with war veterans gaining vote bonuses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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