Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantages, leading position in recent polls (29-41% party-list support per FOM and WCIOM), and projected wins in most of the 225 single-member districts despite internal admissions of vulnerabilities in up to 30 regions. The hybrid system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post—amplifies United Russia's edge through administrative resources and Kremlin-backed restructuring under Vladimir Yakushev. New People's elevated odds stem from rising poll shares (up to 10.7% in WCIOM surveys), positioning it as a pro-government liberal contender for second place amid economic discontent eroding United Russia's margins from 2021 levels. Lower probabilities for LDPR, KPRF, and others align with their stagnant 8-10% support, with no major shifts in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) 69%
New People (NL) 22.9%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 6.2%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,401,240 Vol.
$4,401,240 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
69%
New People (NL)
23%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 69%
New People (NL) 22.9%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 6.2%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,401,240 Vol.
$4,401,240 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$1,222,042 Vol.
69%
New People (NL)
$277,041 Vol.
23%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$2,034,578 Vol.
6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$254,852 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$226,929 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$196,173 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$189,627 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantages, leading position in recent polls (29-41% party-list support per FOM and WCIOM), and projected wins in most of the 225 single-member districts despite internal admissions of vulnerabilities in up to 30 regions. The hybrid system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post—amplifies United Russia's edge through administrative resources and Kremlin-backed restructuring under Vladimir Yakushev. New People's elevated odds stem from rising poll shares (up to 10.7% in WCIOM surveys), positioning it as a pro-government liberal contender for second place amid economic discontent eroding United Russia's margins from 2021 levels. Lower probabilities for LDPR, KPRF, and others align with their stagnant 8-10% support, with no major shifts in the past week.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$4,401,240End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantages, leading position in recent polls (29-41% party-list support per FOM and WCIOM), and projected wins in most of the 225 single-member districts despite internal admissions of vulnerabilities in up to 30 regions. The hybrid system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post—amplifies United Russia's edge through administrative resources and Kremlin-backed restructuring under Vladimir Yakushev. New People's elevated odds stem from rising poll shares (up to 10.7% in WCIOM surveys), positioning it as a pro-government liberal contender for second place amid economic discontent eroding United Russia's margins from 2021 levels. Lower probabilities for LDPR, KPRF, and others align with their stagnant 8-10% support, with no major shifts in the past week.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,401,240End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting its incumbency advantages, leading position in recent polls (29-41% party-list support per FOM and WCIOM), and projected wins in most of the 225 single-member districts despite internal admissions of vulnerabilities in up to 30 regions. The hybrid system—225 proportional seats above a 5% threshold and 225 first-past-the-post—amplifies United Russia's edge through administrative resources and Kremlin-backed restructuring under Vladimir Yakushev. New People's elevated odds stem from rising poll shares (up to 10.7% in WCIOM surveys), positioning it as a pro-government liberal contender for second place amid economic discontent eroding United Russia's margins from 2021 levels. Lower probabilities for LDPR, KPRF, and others align with their stagnant 8-10% support, with no major shifts in the past week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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