Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts despite recent polls showing its party-list support dipping to 29-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People has surged to second place at 10-13% in VCIOM polls and pro-Kremlin VTsIOM data, elevating its profile as a Kremlin-tolerant challenger amid reports of United Russia preparing for potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member contests. Communists and LDPR hover at 8-10%, insufficient for overtaking the incumbent in the 450-seat chamber split evenly between proportional lists and first-past-the-post districts. Putin's approval at wartime lows adds uncertainty, but structural advantages position United Russia ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) 71%
New People (NL) 21.8%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.9%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,393,217 Vol.
$4,393,217 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
71%
New People (NL)
22%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 71%
New People (NL) 21.8%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 5.9%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.3%
$4,393,217 Vol.
$4,393,217 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$1,215,851 Vol.
71%
New People (NL)
$276,761 Vol.
22%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$2,034,127 Vol.
6%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$254,614 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$226,540 Vol.
1%
Rodina
$195,937 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$189,387 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts despite recent polls showing its party-list support dipping to 29-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People has surged to second place at 10-13% in VCIOM polls and pro-Kremlin VTsIOM data, elevating its profile as a Kremlin-tolerant challenger amid reports of United Russia preparing for potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member contests. Communists and LDPR hover at 8-10%, insufficient for overtaking the incumbent in the 450-seat chamber split evenly between proportional lists and first-past-the-post districts. Putin's approval at wartime lows adds uncertainty, but structural advantages position United Russia ahead.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Volume
$4,393,217End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts despite recent polls showing its party-list support dipping to 29-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People has surged to second place at 10-13% in VCIOM polls and pro-Kremlin VTsIOM data, elevating its profile as a Kremlin-tolerant challenger amid reports of United Russia preparing for potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member contests. Communists and LDPR hover at 8-10%, insufficient for overtaking the incumbent in the 450-seat chamber split evenly between proportional lists and first-past-the-post districts. Putin's approval at wartime lows adds uncertainty, but structural advantages position United Russia ahead.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$4,393,217End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors United Russia to secure the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its historical dominance in single-member districts despite recent polls showing its party-list support dipping to 29-41% in March FOM and VCIOM surveys. New People has surged to second place at 10-13% in VCIOM polls and pro-Kremlin VTsIOM data, elevating its profile as a Kremlin-tolerant challenger amid reports of United Russia preparing for potential losses in up to 30 regions' single-member contests. Communists and LDPR hover at 8-10%, insufficient for overtaking the incumbent in the 450-seat chamber split evenly between proportional lists and first-past-the-post districts. Putin's approval at wartime lows adds uncertainty, but structural advantages position United Russia ahead.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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