Trader sentiment on countries conducting military action against Iran by March 31 reflects de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile barrage earlier that month. No direct strikes have occurred since, amid U.S.-led strikes on Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, and Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Diplomatic rhetoric emphasizes restraint, with Iran signaling no further direct attacks and Western powers focusing on sanctions and IAEA monitoring of Iran's nuclear program. Key risks include Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, potential escalation in Gaza peace talks, or U.S. policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration after January 20 inauguration, any of which could prompt Israeli or coalition responses before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$9,823,282 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
9%
UAE
7%
Bahrain
4%
Kuwait
3%
Qatar
2%
Any E.U. Country
2%
Turkey
2%
UK
2%
Jordan
1%
France
1%
Canada
<1%
Oman
<1%
Germany
<1%
$9,823,282 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
9%
UAE
7%
Bahrain
4%
Kuwait
3%
Qatar
2%
Any E.U. Country
2%
Turkey
2%
UK
2%
Jordan
1%
France
1%
Canada
<1%
Oman
<1%
Germany
<1%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on countries conducting military action against Iran by March 31 reflects de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, 2024, in retaliation for Tehran's ballistic missile barrage earlier that month. No direct strikes have occurred since, amid U.S.-led strikes on Iranian proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, and Israel's intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Diplomatic rhetoric emphasizes restraint, with Iran signaling no further direct attacks and Western powers focusing on sanctions and IAEA monitoring of Iran's nuclear program. Key risks include Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea, potential escalation in Gaza peace talks, or U.S. policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration after January 20 inauguration, any of which could prompt Israeli or coalition responses before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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