The US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a month-long conflict marked by ongoing mutual attacks, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel and a March 27 strike on a US air base in Saudi Arabia that wounded at least 12 American troops. Saudi Arabia intercepted incoming Iranian missiles during the incident, while the UK has authorized US use of its bases for operations. Amid trader consensus on continued US-Israeli action, speculation centers on potential escalations drawing in Gulf states like Saudi Arabia or UAE before the March 31 deadline, as the US reviews a diplomatic proposal presented to Iran via mediators on March 24 that Tehran is evaluating. No other nations have confirmed direct strikes to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$10,402,955 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi Arabia
7%
UAE
6%
Qatar
3%
Bahrain
2%
Any E.U. Country
1%
Kuwait
1%
UK
1%
Turkey
1%
Jordan
1%
Oman
1%
France
1%
Germany
<1%
Canada
<1%
$10,402,955 Vol.
Saudi Arabia
$2,130,792 Vol.
7%
UAE
$2,581,373 Vol.
6%
Qatar
$937,679 Vol.
3%
Bahrain
$387,936 Vol.
2%
Any E.U. Country
$459,773 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$209,767 Vol.
1%
UK
$938,064 Vol.
1%
Turkey
$474,133 Vol.
1%
Jordan
$186,817 Vol.
1%
Oman
$129,544 Vol.
1%
France
$723,944 Vol.
1%
Germany
$908,400 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$334,732 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a month-long conflict marked by ongoing mutual attacks, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel and a March 27 strike on a US air base in Saudi Arabia that wounded at least 12 American troops. Saudi Arabia intercepted incoming Iranian missiles during the incident, while the UK has authorized US use of its bases for operations. Amid trader consensus on continued US-Israeli action, speculation centers on potential escalations drawing in Gulf states like Saudi Arabia or UAE before the March 31 deadline, as the US reviews a diplomatic proposal presented to Iran via mediators on March 24 that Tehran is evaluating. No other nations have confirmed direct strikes to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$10,402,955End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a month-long conflict marked by ongoing mutual attacks, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel and a March 27 strike on a US air base in Saudi Arabia that wounded at least 12 American troops. Saudi Arabia intercepted incoming Iranian missiles during the incident, while the UK has authorized US use of its bases for operations. Amid trader consensus on continued US-Israeli action, speculation centers on potential escalations drawing in Gulf states like Saudi Arabia or UAE before the March 31 deadline, as the US reviews a diplomatic proposal presented to Iran via mediators on March 24 that Tehran is evaluating. No other nations have confirmed direct strikes to date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,402,955End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 2, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure on February 28, 2026, initiating a month-long conflict marked by ongoing mutual attacks, including Iranian missile barrages on Israel and a March 27 strike on a US air base in Saudi Arabia that wounded at least 12 American troops. Saudi Arabia intercepted incoming Iranian missiles during the incident, while the UK has authorized US use of its bases for operations. Amid trader consensus on continued US-Israeli action, speculation centers on potential escalations drawing in Gulf states like Saudi Arabia or UAE before the March 31 deadline, as the US reviews a diplomatic proposal presented to Iran via mediators on March 24 that Tehran is evaluating. No other nations have confirmed direct strikes to date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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