What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?
$41,718 Vol.
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Nuclear
$15,179 Vol.
27%
Nuclear
$15,179 Vol.
27%
Oil/Gas
$6,184 Vol.
31%
Oil/Gas
$6,184 Vol.
31%
Tehran
$20,354 Vol.
45%
Tehran
$20,354 Vol.
45%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Created At: Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTC
Volume
$41,718End Date
Jan 16, 2026Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...$41,718 Vol.
What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by January 31?
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
Nuclear
$15,179 Vol.
27%
Oil/Gas
$6,184 Vol.
31%
Tehran
$20,354 Vol.
45%
About
Volume
$41,718End Date
Jan 16, 2026Created At
Jan 11, 2026, 5:18 AM UTCResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.




Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.