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Elections·Primaries

Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·Primaries

Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner

$16,849 Vol.

Polymarket

$16,849 Vol.

Mark Warner

$9,444 Vol.

99%

Jason Reynolds

$7,405 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner's 99.1% implied probability in the Virginia Democratic Senate primary reflects his entrenched position as a three-term senator since 2009, bolstered by $13 million cash-on-hand as of early 2026, endorsements from Gov. Abigail Spanberger and Sen. Tim Kaine, and formal filing with over 18,000 signatures on March 16. Challengers like Jason Reynolds, an IT professional positioning as a progressive alternative, Lorita Daniels, Gregory Eichelberger, and briefly Mark Moran—who switched to independent on April 2—hold negligible support, with no primary polls and minimal fundraising reported post-April 2 filing deadline. The August 4 primary favors Warner's incumbency advantage and party machinery, though a late scandal, health event, or unexpected endorsement surge could theoretically shift trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,849
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Mark Warner's 99.1% implied probability in the Virginia Democratic Senate primary reflects his entrenched position as a three-term senator since 2009, bolstered by $13 million cash-on-hand as of early 2026, endorsements from Gov. Abigail Spanberger and Sen. Tim Kaine, and formal filing with over 18,000 signatures on March 16. Challengers like Jason Reynolds, an IT professional positioning as a progressive alternative, Lorita Daniels, Gregory Eichelberger, and briefly Mark Moran—who switched to independent on April 2—hold negligible support, with no primary polls and minimal fundraising reported post-April 2 filing deadline. The August 4 primary favors Warner's incumbency advantage and party machinery, though a late scandal, health event, or unexpected endorsement surge could theoretically shift trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$16,849
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Warner" at 99%, followed by "Jason Reynolds" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner" has generated $16.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner" is "Mark Warner" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jason Reynolds" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.