Amid the US-Iran war that began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, recent Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Qatar—wounding dozens to hundreds of troops within the past day—have spurred reinforcements, including the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines entering the US Central Command area and Pentagon deliberations on deploying up to 17,000 more elite forces like the 82nd Airborne. No US ground troops have entered Iranian territory, with operations limited to airstrikes and naval actions; Tehran warns of "surprises" for any invasion amid rejected 15-point US diplomatic demands. Key traders watch for escalation signals, such as further troop concentrations or Houthi proxy involvement, ahead of potential ground phase decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$42,049,590 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
12%
April 30
58%
December 31
69%
$42,049,590 Vol.
March 31
$29,019,019 Vol.
12%
April 30
$5,968,425 Vol.
58%
December 31
$5,052,002 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Iran war that began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, recent Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Qatar—wounding dozens to hundreds of troops within the past day—have spurred reinforcements, including the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines entering the US Central Command area and Pentagon deliberations on deploying up to 17,000 more elite forces like the 82nd Airborne. No US ground troops have entered Iranian territory, with operations limited to airstrikes and naval actions; Tehran warns of "surprises" for any invasion amid rejected 15-point US diplomatic demands. Key traders watch for escalation signals, such as further troop concentrations or Houthi proxy involvement, ahead of potential ground phase decisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$42,049,590Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Iran war that began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, recent Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Qatar—wounding dozens to hundreds of troops within the past day—have spurred reinforcements, including the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines entering the US Central Command area and Pentagon deliberations on deploying up to 17,000 more elite forces like the 82nd Airborne. No US ground troops have entered Iranian territory, with operations limited to airstrikes and naval actions; Tehran warns of "surprises" for any invasion amid rejected 15-point US diplomatic demands. Key traders watch for escalation signals, such as further troop concentrations or Houthi proxy involvement, ahead of potential ground phase decisions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$42,049,590Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Iran war that began with joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, recent Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia and Qatar—wounding dozens to hundreds of troops within the past day—have spurred reinforcements, including the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines entering the US Central Command area and Pentagon deliberations on deploying up to 17,000 more elite forces like the 82nd Airborne. No US ground troops have entered Iranian territory, with operations limited to airstrikes and naval actions; Tehran warns of "surprises" for any invasion amid rejected 15-point US diplomatic demands. Key traders watch for escalation signals, such as further troop concentrations or Houthi proxy involvement, ahead of potential ground phase decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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