Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted thousands of airstrikes on Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and elsewhere, including a March 27 strike wounding troops and damaging aircraft at a Saudi air base. No US ground forces have entered Iran amid the air-centric campaign, with officials like Senator Rubio stating operations will conclude in weeks without boots on the ground. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel and Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions heighten escalation risks, but a US 15-point diplomatic plan and Trump’s signals of winding down reflect trader consensus on limited ground intervention probabilities, pending negotiations or further IRGC actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS forces enter Iran by..?
US forces enter Iran by..?
$41,074,588 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
9%
April 30
55%
December 31
66%
$41,074,588 Vol.
March 31
$28,285,254 Vol.
9%
April 30
$5,747,133 Vol.
55%
December 31
$4,969,053 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted thousands of airstrikes on Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and elsewhere, including a March 27 strike wounding troops and damaging aircraft at a Saudi air base. No US ground forces have entered Iran amid the air-centric campaign, with officials like Senator Rubio stating operations will conclude in weeks without boots on the ground. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel and Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions heighten escalation risks, but a US 15-point diplomatic plan and Trump’s signals of winding down reflect trader consensus on limited ground intervention probabilities, pending negotiations or further IRGC actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ET
Volume
$41,074,588Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted thousands of airstrikes on Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and elsewhere, including a March 27 strike wounding troops and damaging aircraft at a Saudi air base. No US ground forces have entered Iran amid the air-centric campaign, with officials like Senator Rubio stating operations will conclude in weeks without boots on the ground. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel and Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions heighten escalation risks, but a US 15-point diplomatic plan and Trump’s signals of winding down reflect trader consensus on limited ground intervention probabilities, pending negotiations or further IRGC actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$41,074,588Market Opened
Jan 11, 2026, 3:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Since late February 2026, the US and Israel have conducted thousands of airstrikes on Iranian military sites, prompting Tehran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and elsewhere, including a March 27 strike wounding troops and damaging aircraft at a Saudi air base. No US ground forces have entered Iran amid the air-centric campaign, with officials like Senator Rubio stating operations will conclude in weeks without boots on the ground. Recent Houthi missile strikes on Israel and Iranian Strait of Hormuz disruptions heighten escalation risks, but a US 15-point diplomatic plan and Trump’s signals of winding down reflect trader consensus on limited ground intervention probabilities, pending negotiations or further IRGC actions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions