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U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?

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U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$6,190 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$6,190 Vol.

The oil tanker Bella 1 has allegedly been involved in the Iranian oil trade and linked to sanctions-evasion activity. On December 21, 2025, U.S. forces intercepted Bella 1 near Venezuela. You can find more details here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tankers.html. This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The oil tanker Bella 1 has allegedly been involved in the Iranian oil trade and linked to sanctions-evasion activity. On December 21, 2025, U.S. forces intercepted Bella 1 near Venezuela. You can find more details here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tankers.html.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,190
End Date
Dec 23, 2025
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 12:25 PM ET
The oil tanker Bella 1 has allegedly been involved in the Iranian oil trade and linked to sanctions-evasion activity. On December 21, 2025, U.S. forces intercepted Bella 1 near Venezuela. You can find more details here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tankers.html. This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The oil tanker Bella 1 has allegedly been involved in the Iranian oil trade and linked to sanctions-evasion activity. On December 21, 2025, U.S. forces intercepted Bella 1 near Venezuela. You can find more details here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tankers.html. This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The oil tanker Bella 1 has allegedly been involved in the Iranian oil trade and linked to sanctions-evasion activity. On December 21, 2025, U.S. forces intercepted Bella 1 near Venezuela. You can find more details here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tankers.html.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,190
End Date
Dec 23, 2025
Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 12:25 PM ET
The oil tanker Bella 1 has allegedly been involved in the Iranian oil trade and linked to sanctions-evasion activity. On December 21, 2025, U.S. forces intercepted Bella 1 near Venezuela. You can find more details here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/21/us/politics/us-coast-guard-venezuela-oil-tankers.html. This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 22, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.