Following mid-decade redistricting in August 2025 that transformed TX-32 from a Democratic-held Dallas suburban district into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 46% to win the open House race. Nominees were locked in after the March 3 primaries, with Democrat Dan Barrios securing 60% outright and Republican attorney Jace Yarbrough leading a crowded nine-candidate field at 49%; runner-up Ryan Binkley's withdrawal last week avoided a May runoff, bolstering Yarbrough's path. The modest GOP edge reflects early-stage uncertainty absent polls, potential national midterm dynamics, and an independent challenger, ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTX-32 House Election Winner
TX-32 House Election Winner
$24,638 Vol.
$24,638 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
21%
Republican Party
50%
$24,638 Vol.
$24,638 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Vol.
21%
Republican Party
$24,638 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following mid-decade redistricting in August 2025 that transformed TX-32 from a Democratic-held Dallas suburban district into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 46% to win the open House race. Nominees were locked in after the March 3 primaries, with Democrat Dan Barrios securing 60% outright and Republican attorney Jace Yarbrough leading a crowded nine-candidate field at 49%; runner-up Ryan Binkley's withdrawal last week avoided a May runoff, bolstering Yarbrough's path. The modest GOP edge reflects early-stage uncertainty absent polls, potential national midterm dynamics, and an independent challenger, ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$24,638End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Following mid-decade redistricting in August 2025 that transformed TX-32 from a Democratic-held Dallas suburban district into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 46% to win the open House race. Nominees were locked in after the March 3 primaries, with Democrat Dan Barrios securing 60% outright and Republican attorney Jace Yarbrough leading a crowded nine-candidate field at 49%; runner-up Ryan Binkley's withdrawal last week avoided a May runoff, bolstering Yarbrough's path. The modest GOP edge reflects early-stage uncertainty absent polls, potential national midterm dynamics, and an independent challenger, ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,638End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following mid-decade redistricting in August 2025 that transformed TX-32 from a Democratic-held Dallas suburban district into a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report and other forecasters, trader consensus prices the Republican Party at 46% to win the open House race. Nominees were locked in after the March 3 primaries, with Democrat Dan Barrios securing 60% outright and Republican attorney Jace Yarbrough leading a crowded nine-candidate field at 49%; runner-up Ryan Binkley's withdrawal last week avoided a May runoff, bolstering Yarbrough's path. The modest GOP edge reflects early-stage uncertainty absent polls, potential national midterm dynamics, and an independent challenger, ahead of the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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