Trader consensus on Polymarket implies strong favoritism for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to defeat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, driven by recent polls showing Paxton leading by mid-single digits and CPAC's March 28 endorsement following a straw poll lopsidedly favoring him 67%-21%. After neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 primary—Cornyn first at around 45%, Paxton second—Paxton has consolidated hard-right support through state GOP endorsements and a positive meeting with President Trump, while national groups like NRSC abandoned Cornyn and Sen. Ted Cruz stayed neutral. Paxton's base appeal contrasts Cornyn's establishment record; low-turnout runoffs typically boost motivated conservatives, though Cornyn's attack ads or a Trump endorsement could narrow margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPaxton 9%+ 31.8%
Paxton 6–9% 20%
Cornyn 9%+ 12%
Paxton <3% 11.5%
$38,689 Vol.
$38,689 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
32%
Paxton 6–9%
20%
Paxton 3–6%
12%
Paxton <3%
12%
Cornyn <3%
10%
Cornyn 3–6%
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
1%
Cornyn 9%+
12%
Paxton 9%+ 31.8%
Paxton 6–9% 20%
Cornyn 9%+ 12%
Paxton <3% 11.5%
$38,689 Vol.
$38,689 Vol.
May 25, 2026
Paxton 9%+
$6,198 Vol.
32%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,849 Vol.
20%
Paxton 3–6%
$3,839 Vol.
12%
Paxton <3%
$5,787 Vol.
12%
Cornyn <3%
$3,441 Vol.
10%
Cornyn 3–6%
$3,913 Vol.
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,074 Vol.
1%
Cornyn 9%+
$6,587 Vol.
12%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies strong favoritism for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to defeat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, driven by recent polls showing Paxton leading by mid-single digits and CPAC's March 28 endorsement following a straw poll lopsidedly favoring him 67%-21%. After neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 primary—Cornyn first at around 45%, Paxton second—Paxton has consolidated hard-right support through state GOP endorsements and a positive meeting with President Trump, while national groups like NRSC abandoned Cornyn and Sen. Ted Cruz stayed neutral. Paxton's base appeal contrasts Cornyn's establishment record; low-turnout runoffs typically boost motivated conservatives, though Cornyn's attack ads or a Trump endorsement could narrow margins.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$38,689End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies strong favoritism for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to defeat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, driven by recent polls showing Paxton leading by mid-single digits and CPAC's March 28 endorsement following a straw poll lopsidedly favoring him 67%-21%. After neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 primary—Cornyn first at around 45%, Paxton second—Paxton has consolidated hard-right support through state GOP endorsements and a positive meeting with President Trump, while national groups like NRSC abandoned Cornyn and Sen. Ted Cruz stayed neutral. Paxton's base appeal contrasts Cornyn's establishment record; low-turnout runoffs typically boost motivated conservatives, though Cornyn's attack ads or a Trump endorsement could narrow margins.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$38,689End Date
May 25, 2026Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies strong favoritism for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to defeat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by 9% or more in the May 26 Republican primary runoff, driven by recent polls showing Paxton leading by mid-single digits and CPAC's March 28 endorsement following a straw poll lopsidedly favoring him 67%-21%. After neither candidate cleared 50% in the March 3 primary—Cornyn first at around 45%, Paxton second—Paxton has consolidated hard-right support through state GOP endorsements and a positive meeting with President Trump, while national groups like NRSC abandoned Cornyn and Sen. Ted Cruz stayed neutral. Paxton's base appeal contrasts Cornyn's establishment record; low-turnout runoffs typically boost motivated conservatives, though Cornyn's attack ads or a Trump endorsement could narrow margins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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