In the Terrebonne federal by-election set for April 13, trader consensus favors Liberal Tatiana Auguste at 58% implied probability over Bloc Québécois challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné at 40.5%, reflecting Auguste's razor-thin one-vote win in the 2025 general election—annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada in February due to Elections Canada mail-in ballot errors. The rematch dominates despite 48 candidates prompting write-in ballots, with fringe contenders polling negligible support. Recent campaign rallies and door-to-door efforts show no major shifts, aligning market odds with 338Canada projections of 59% Liberal odds; advance polls open this weekend could sway turnout in this key minority-government seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedTerrebone By-Election Winner
Terrebone By-Election Winner
Tatiana Auguste 58%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Adrienne Charles <1%
$59,370 Vol.
$59,370 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
Tatiana Auguste
58%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
41%
Maxime Beaudoin
<1%
Adrienne Charles
<1%
Maria Cantore
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
<1%
Tatiana Auguste 58%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné 41%
Maxime Beaudoin <1%
Adrienne Charles <1%
$59,370 Vol.
$59,370 Vol.
Apr 13, 2026
Tatiana Auguste
$19,762 Vol.
58%
Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné
$12,454 Vol.
41%
Maxime Beaudoin
$7,315 Vol.
<1%
Adrienne Charles
$6,126 Vol.
<1%
Maria Cantore
$7,614 Vol.
<1%
Benjamin Rankin
$6,098 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).In the Terrebonne federal by-election set for April 13, trader consensus favors Liberal Tatiana Auguste at 58% implied probability over Bloc Québécois challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné at 40.5%, reflecting Auguste's razor-thin one-vote win in the 2025 general election—annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada in February due to Elections Canada mail-in ballot errors. The rematch dominates despite 48 candidates prompting write-in ballots, with fringe contenders polling negligible support. Recent campaign rallies and door-to-door efforts show no major shifts, aligning market odds with 338Canada projections of 59% Liberal odds; advance polls open this weekend could sway turnout in this key minority-government seat.
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Volume
$59,370End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).In the Terrebonne federal by-election set for April 13, trader consensus favors Liberal Tatiana Auguste at 58% implied probability over Bloc Québécois challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné at 40.5%, reflecting Auguste's razor-thin one-vote win in the 2025 general election—annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada in February due to Elections Canada mail-in ballot errors. The rematch dominates despite 48 candidates prompting write-in ballots, with fringe contenders polling negligible support. Recent campaign rallies and door-to-door efforts show no major shifts, aligning market odds with 338Canada projections of 59% Liberal odds; advance polls open this weekend could sway turnout in this key minority-government seat.
A by-election for the seat of Terrebonne, Quebec in the House of Commons of Canada will be held on April 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the Terrebonne, Quebec seat in the House of Commons of Canada.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
Volume
$59,370End Date
Apr 13, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the Terrebonne federal by-election set for April 13, trader consensus favors Liberal Tatiana Auguste at 58% implied probability over Bloc Québécois challenger Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné at 40.5%, reflecting Auguste's razor-thin one-vote win in the 2025 general election—annulled by the Supreme Court of Canada in February due to Elections Canada mail-in ballot errors. The rematch dominates despite 48 candidates prompting write-in ballots, with fringe contenders polling negligible support. Recent campaign rallies and door-to-door efforts show no major shifts, aligning market odds with 338Canada projections of 59% Liberal odds; advance polls open this weekend could sway turnout in this key minority-government seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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