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Elections·US Election

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Elections·US Election

South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner

Lindsey Graham 84%

Paul Dans 9%

Mark Lynch 4.8%

Thomas Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$51,006 Vol.

Lindsey Graham 84%

Paul Dans 9%

Mark Lynch 4.8%

Thomas Murphy <1%

Polymarket

$51,006 Vol.

Lindsey Graham

$25,085 Vol.

84%

Paul Dans

$16,502 Vol.

9%

Mark Lynch

$4,984 Vol.

5%

Thomas Murphy

$4,435 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham commands 83.5% trader consensus to win South Carolina's Republican Senate primary on June 9, 2026—or a potential June 23 runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%—due to his overwhelming fundraising ($19 million raised, $13 million cash on hand), Trump endorsement, and long-held incumbency advantage in the deep-red state. Challengers Paul Dans (8.5%), Project 2025 architect emphasizing conservative reform, and Mark Lynch (4.8%), Greenville businessman attacking Graham's foreign policy, have gained visibility from recent sponsored polls like Pulse Opinion Research (March 11-17) showing Graham at 41%, Lynch 21%, and Dans 11% amid 22% undecideds, plus Dans' new ad campaign. Thomas Murphy (0.2%) shows negligible support. No independent polls or major endorsements have shifted the race, underscoring incumbency resilience despite primary challenges.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$51,006
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham commands 83.5% trader consensus to win South Carolina's Republican Senate primary on June 9, 2026—or a potential June 23 runoff if no candidate exceeds 50%—due to his overwhelming fundraising ($19 million raised, $13 million cash on hand), Trump endorsement, and long-held incumbency advantage in the deep-red state. Challengers Paul Dans (8.5%), Project 2025 architect emphasizing conservative reform, and Mark Lynch (4.8%), Greenville businessman attacking Graham's foreign policy, have gained visibility from recent sponsored polls like Pulse Opinion Research (March 11-17) showing Graham at 41%, Lynch 21%, and Dans 11% amid 22% undecideds, plus Dans' new ad campaign. Thomas Murphy (0.2%) shows negligible support. No independent polls or major endorsements have shifted the race, underscoring incumbency resilience despite primary challenges.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$51,006
End Date
Jun 9, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2025, 3:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lindsey Graham" at 84%, followed by "Paul Dans" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $51K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Lindsey Graham" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paul Dans" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.