Name: Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Start: 2024-12-11T00:27:17.772576Z
End: 2025-05-04T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the winner of the first round of the Romanian elections.

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George Simion receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

George Simion

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Călin Georgescu receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Călin Georgescu

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elena Lasconi receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Elena Lasconi 

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mircea Geoanăi receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Mircea Geoană

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicușor Dan receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Nicușor Dan

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolae Ciucă receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Nicolae Ciucă 

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marcel Ciolacu receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Marcel Ciolacu 

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Crin Antonescu receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Crin Antonescu

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anton Pisaroglu receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Anton Pisaroglu

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Victor Ponta receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Victor Ponta

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Daniel Funeriu receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Daniel Funeriu

Romania has a two-round system for presidential elections, where a runoff between the top two candidates is held if no candidate secures an absolute majority in the first round.

The first round of the Romanian presidential election, originally held on November 24, 2024, was annulled by the Constitutional Court. A new timeline for the elections has not yet been announced, but it is expected that the electoral process will restart in early 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if someone other than any of the named candidates receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of voting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election are not known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes."

This market will resolve based on the official results of the election, as reported by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based on the election results from the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Other

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Nicușor Dan, the former Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure. This election is now scheduled for December 7, 2025.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins over 50% of the votes cast in the by-election for Mayor of Bucharest. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, or the results of the Bucharest mayoral election are otherwise unknown by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bucharest Mayoral Election: Any Candidate Gets >50% of the Vote?

Nicușor Dan, the former Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election scheduled to take place on December 7, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, or the results of the Bucharest mayoral election are otherwise unknown by that date, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Baluta win by 0-3%?

Nicușor Dan, the former Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election scheduled to take place on December 7, 2025.

This market will resolve based on the total percentage of all votes cast out of the number of people entitled to vote in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

If the results of the election are not known by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/). If these results are not available, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 38% and 40%?

Nicușor Dan, the current Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most votes in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election.

If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Will Ciprian Ciucu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?

Nicușor Dan, the former Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure. This election is now scheduled for December 7, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of votes received by the listed candidate in this by-election for Mayor of Bucharest. The percentage of votes received will be determined by dividing the total number of votes the listed candidate receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the results of the Bucharest mayoral election are otherwise unknown by that date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If a recount is initiated before the vote count has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?

Nicușor Dan, the current Mayor of Bucharest, was elected President of Romania on May 18, 2025, triggering a mayoral by-election expected within 90 days of his departure.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the third most votes in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election.

If no by-election takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Romanian Government, specifically the Permanent Electoral Authority (https://www.roaep.ro/prezentare/).

Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?

Will Daniel Băluță get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?

Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?

Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?

Far-right populist candidate for President of Romania Călin Georgescu has been charged as part of an ongoing investigation for election campaign fraud amidst a contentious election. You can read more about it here: https://www.romaniajournal.ro/society-people/law-crime/prosecutors-charge-calin-georgescu-with-incitement-fraud-promoting-fascist-ideas/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Călin Georgescu is found guilty of any charges related to the 2024/2025 Romanian Presidential election by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In the event that all charges are dropped or vacated, a mistrial is declared, or all ongoing investigations/cases are otherwise ended without a guilty verdict, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the first verdict rendered for each charge. Subsequent appeals, etc., will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Romanian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between July 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market is about whether a date for the next Romanian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Romania, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Romania Parliamentary Election called in 2025?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portuguese election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that receives the second-highest number of valid votes in the first round of this election. 

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the first round of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 44%?

The first round of the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election is scheduled for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage in the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, calculated as the total number of votes received (“votos recibidos”) divided by the total electorate (“electorado”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Costa Rica Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 64% and 66%?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. The two candidates with the greatest number of votes in the first round will advance to the second round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidates that qualify for the second round of this election. 

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

If a candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the Central African Republic on December 28, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (Autorité nationale des élections or ANE on https://www.ane-rca.org/). 

If the election outcome is ambiguous and the information from the specified resolution source is not definitive, this market will resolve to the candidate who takes office the following term.

Will Faustin-Archange Touadéra win the 2025 Central African Republic presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that finishes in second place in this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Honduran Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the Honduran Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia.

If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Kari Lake be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Uganda on January 15, 2026. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote outright, a second round of elections will be scheduled.

This market will resolve to the candidate that wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ugandan Government, specifically the Ugandan Electoral Commission (https://www.ec.or.ug/).

Will Yoweri Kaguta Museveni win the 2026 Ugandan presidential election?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea on December 28, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Guinean government, including the Guinean Supreme Court (Cour suprême), the Guinean Constitutional Court (Cour Constitutionnelle), or the newly established Directorate General of Elections (Direction générale des élections or DGE). If these listed sources disagree, they will be prioritized in the following order: Supreme Court, Constitutional Court, Directorate General of Elections.

Will Mamady Doumbouya win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?

The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election.

If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market may remain open to consider any second-round votes held to determine winners in individual single-member constituencies, as long as the remaining undecided seats can still change which party wins the most seats overall, or maximally until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the results available at that time.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (https://www.ane-rca.org/).

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 French Ligue 1. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 French Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from French Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Chile on December 14, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the second round of the 2025 Chilean Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this round of the Chilean Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Chilean Electoral Service (https://www.servel.cl/).

Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the second-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

George Simion
$1,857,159 Vol.
Yes

Călin Georgescu
$434,908 Vol.
No

Elena Lasconi
$599,136 Vol.
No

Mircea Geoană
$150,329 Vol.
No

Nicușor Dan
$637,164 Vol.
No

Nicolae Ciucă
$395,500 Vol.
No

Marcel Ciolacu
$460,971 Vol.
No

Crin Antonescu
$519,904 Vol.
No

Anton Pisaroglu
$101,129 Vol.
No

Victor Ponta
$227,770 Vol.
No

Daniel Funeriu
$11,913 Vol.
No

Other
$77,154 Vol.
No

Market Context

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Rules

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Market Context

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

About

Related

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

George Simion$1,857,159 Vol.Yescircle check

Călin Georgescu$434,908 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Elena Lasconi $599,136 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Mircea Geoană$150,329 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Nicușor Dan$637,164 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Nicolae Ciucă $395,500 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Marcel Ciolacu $460,971 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Crin Antonescu$519,904 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Anton Pisaroglu$101,129 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Victor Ponta$227,770 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Daniel Funeriu$11,913 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Other$77,154 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Rules

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Market Context

Romania Presidential Election 1st round winner?

About

Related

George Simion
$1,857,159 Vol.
Yes

Călin Georgescu
$434,908 Vol.
No

Elena Lasconi
$599,136 Vol.
No

Mircea Geoană
$150,329 Vol.
No

Nicușor Dan
$637,164 Vol.
No

Nicolae Ciucă
$395,500 Vol.
No

Marcel Ciolacu
$460,971 Vol.
No

Crin Antonescu
$519,904 Vol.
No

Anton Pisaroglu
$101,129 Vol.
No

Victor Ponta
$227,770 Vol.
No

Daniel Funeriu
$11,913 Vol.
No

Other
$77,154 Vol.
No