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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$480,854,899 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.9%

Polymarket

$480,854,899 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,526,801 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$7,385,538 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,447,542 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,464,875 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,082,853 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,622,270 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,538,538 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,347,507 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,669,181 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,580,233 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,482,640 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,188,666 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,955,244 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,816,803 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,712,531 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,409,688 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,175,029 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,825,080 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,151,177 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,324,618 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,485,271 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,702,978 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,552,591 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,139,697 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,874,851 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,462,811 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,663,653 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,940,846 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,591,710 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,396,717 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,639,158 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,490,752 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,281,348 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,214,045 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,321,115 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,407,648 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, buoyed by overwhelming Republican primary polling (53% support in recent JL Partners survey) and his recent headline appearance at the Rockbridge Network conservative donor summit, alongside a new faith memoir fueling speculation. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.6% as the Democratic frontrunner, propelled by his February book tour openly discussing a potential run and family deliberations amid party post-2024 recalibration. Sen. Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects gains tied to foreign policy handling during Iran tensions. The fragmented field and absence of primaries keep odds tight, with 2026 midterms poised to elevate governors, senators, or incumbents via battleground performances and endorsements.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,854,899
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, buoyed by overwhelming Republican primary polling (53% support in recent JL Partners survey) and his recent headline appearance at the Rockbridge Network conservative donor summit, alongside a new faith memoir fueling speculation. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.6% as the Democratic frontrunner, propelled by his February book tour openly discussing a potential run and family deliberations amid party post-2024 recalibration. Sen. Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects gains tied to foreign policy handling during Iran tensions. The fragmented field and absence of primaries keep odds tight, with 2026 midterms poised to elevate governors, senators, or incumbents via battleground performances and endorsements.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,854,899
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $480.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.