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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.7%

Polymarket

$478,137,963 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.7%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.7%

Polymarket

$478,137,963 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,304,722 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$6,912,274 Vol.

17%

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Marco Rubio

$5,420,138 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,454,705 Vol.

7%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,073,548 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,523,523 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,595,493 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,327,406 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,582,844 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,453,455 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,378,890 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$9,848,647 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,932,622 Vol.

2%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,693,521 Vol.

1%

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James Talarico

$3,814,891 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,092,599 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,367,221 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,089,380 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,796,116 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,292,140 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,464,824 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,674,921 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,479,051 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,128,826 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,844,140 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,459,097 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,596,252 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,908,472 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,492,540 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,366,253 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,600,913 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,333,614 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,166,963 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,293,023 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,341,987 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,038,285 Vol.

<1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his dominant 53% win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll for the GOP nomination, reinforcing his position as heir apparent amid President Trump's second term. California Governor Gavin Newsom has rapidly closed the gap to near parity, buoyed by recent polls showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup and tying for second in New Hampshire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails but surges on foreign policy visibility amid Iran tensions, as Trump informally polls advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors. With odds tightly clustered below 20% across a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, the race remains wide open until 2027 primaries, where endorsements, midterm results, and scandals could create separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$478,137,963
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election following his dominant 53% win in the March 28 CPAC straw poll for the GOP nomination, reinforcing his position as heir apparent amid President Trump's second term. California Governor Gavin Newsom has rapidly closed the gap to near parity, buoyed by recent polls showing him trouncing Kamala Harris in a California Democratic primary matchup and tying for second in New Hampshire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio trails but surges on foreign policy visibility amid Iran tensions, as Trump informally polls advisers on Vance versus Rubio successors. With odds tightly clustered below 20% across a fragmented field of over 30 candidates, the race remains wide open until 2027 primaries, where endorsements, midterm results, and scandals could create separation.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$478,137,963
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $478.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.