Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,598,830 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,598,830 Vol.

Market icon

JD Vance

$9,520,749 Vol.

18%

Market icon

Gavin Newsom

$7,319,099 Vol.

16%

Market icon

Marco Rubio

$5,438,656 Vol.

11%

Market icon

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,464,807 Vol.

6%

Market icon

Jon Ossoff

$3,082,853 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Kamala Harris

$6,621,825 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Tucker Carlson

$9,537,829 Vol.

3%

Market icon

Josh Shapiro

$5,342,219 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Donald Trump

$6,666,522 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Andy Beshear

$15,570,863 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Pete Buttigieg

$3,480,482 Vol.

2%

Market icon

JB Pritzker

$10,160,874 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Ron DeSantis

$5,950,800 Vol.

2%

Market icon

James Talarico

$3,816,530 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,711,318 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Michelle Obama

$13,409,142 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Elon Musk

$22,109,865 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Gretchen Whitmer

$7,825,058 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ivanka Trump

$4,149,770 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Jamie Dimon

$7,321,944 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Greg Abbott

$31,483,881 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Wes Moore

$5,698,076 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Donald Trump Jr.

$8,531,484 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Nikki Haley

$21,139,697 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Ro Khanna

$5,871,382 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Thomas Massie

$3,462,588 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tim Walz

$38,660,297 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Glenn Youngkin

$19,934,463 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Stephen Smith

$28,587,266 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Tulsi Gabbard

$27,396,712 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Zohran Mamdani

$16,636,207 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Eric Trump

$5,488,167 Vol.

1%

Market icon

LeBron James

$43,276,355 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Pete Hegseth

$2,210,543 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,318,621 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Kim Kardashian

$29,403,280 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Vice President JD Vance as the narrow 2028 presidential frontrunner at 17.6%, barely ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.7%, reflecting an open field with no primaries underway. Vance's edge as Trump's heir apparent softened last week amid administration tensions over Iran policy and erratic statements, driving a dip in his odds, while Newsom surged on a February book tour hitting early primary states like New Hampshire and a March California poll trouncing Kamala Harris. Rubio briefly leapfrogged both in mid-March on Mar-a-Lago donor buzz but faded. The 2026 midterms, swing-state battles, and potential Trump endorsements loom as catalysts to widen gaps in this volatile early race.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,598,830
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Vice President JD Vance as the narrow 2028 presidential frontrunner at 17.6%, barely ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 16.3% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 10.7%, reflecting an open field with no primaries underway. Vance's edge as Trump's heir apparent softened last week amid administration tensions over Iran policy and erratic statements, driving a dip in his odds, while Newsom surged on a February book tour hitting early primary states like New Hampshire and a March California poll trouncing Kamala Harris. Rubio briefly leapfrogged both in mid-March on Mar-a-Lago donor buzz but faded. The 2026 midterms, swing-state battles, and potential Trump endorsements loom as catalysts to widen gaps in this volatile early race.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,598,830
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Related

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $480.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.