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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

icon for Presidential Election Winner 2028
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 18.3%

Gavin Newsom 17.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$548,753,368 Vol.

JD Vance 18.3%

Gavin Newsom 17.8%

Marco Rubio 10.3%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 5.8%

Polymarket

$548,753,368 Vol.

icon for JD Vance

JD Vance

$10,581,717 Vol.

18%

icon for Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom

$15,703,889 Vol.

18%

icon for Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

$9,316,959 Vol.

10%

icon for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$11,174,499 Vol.

6%

icon for Jon Ossoff

Jon Ossoff

$3,734,077 Vol.

4%

icon for Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris

$7,139,224 Vol.

4%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$7,371,631 Vol.

3%

icon for Tucker Carlson

Tucker Carlson

$10,448,818 Vol.

2%

icon for Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg

$4,132,679 Vol.

2%

icon for Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro

$6,027,940 Vol.

2%

icon for Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis

$9,864,259 Vol.

2%

icon for Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$6,328,979 Vol.

2%

icon for Andy Beshear

Andy Beshear

$17,764,330 Vol.

1%

icon for Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin

$22,610,616 Vol.

1%

icon for JB Pritzker

JB Pritzker

$11,095,480 Vol.

1%

icon for Thomas Massie

Thomas Massie

$3,916,612 Vol.

1%

icon for James Talarico

James Talarico

$4,861,883 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$23,144,977 Vol.

1%

icon for Gretchen Whitmer

Gretchen Whitmer

$9,647,511 Vol.

1%

icon for Ivanka Trump

Ivanka Trump

$5,456,424 Vol.

1%

icon for Stephen Smith

Stephen Smith

$30,590,126 Vol.

1%

icon for Greg Abbott

Greg Abbott

$32,513,695 Vol.

1%

icon for Michelle Obama

Michelle Obama

$14,162,598 Vol.

1%

icon for Jamie Dimon

Jamie Dimon

$7,851,729 Vol.

1%

icon for Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump Jr.

$10,288,389 Vol.

1%

icon for Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley

$23,163,087 Vol.

1%

icon for Ro Khanna

Ro Khanna

$7,752,562 Vol.

1%

icon for Wes Moore

Wes Moore

$7,861,375 Vol.

1%

icon for Tulsi Gabbard

Tulsi Gabbard

$29,181,997 Vol.

1%

icon for Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani

$18,395,428 Vol.

1%

icon for Eric Trump

Eric Trump

$7,302,511 Vol.

1%

icon for Tim Walz

Tim Walz

$40,362,306 Vol.

1%

icon for LeBron James

LeBron James

$48,404,455 Vol.

1%

icon for Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth

$5,146,808 Vol.

1%

icon for Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy

$31,628,278 Vol.

1%

icon for Kim Kardashian

Kim Kardashian

$33,828,348 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead at 18.3% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.8%, reflecting early speculation two years before primaries amid his role as Trump's heir apparent despite a sharp 21-point approval drop since early 2025. Recent CPAC straw polls affirm Vance's top spot among Republicans, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio's rise to 10.3% stems from his prominent handling of Iran tensions, highlighting intraparty divides with Vance's stances. Newsom gains traction via New Hampshire primary polling and book tour critiques of the administration. The tight field underscores uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsement signals, and emerging primary polling poised to create separation in this crowded race.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$548,753,368
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim lead at 18.3% in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election winner, just ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom at 17.8%, reflecting early speculation two years before primaries amid his role as Trump's heir apparent despite a sharp 21-point approval drop since early 2025. Recent CPAC straw polls affirm Vance's top spot among Republicans, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio's rise to 10.3% stems from his prominent handling of Iran tensions, highlighting intraparty divides with Vance's stances. Newsom gains traction via New Hampshire primary polling and book tour critiques of the administration. The tight field underscores uncertainty, with 2026 midterms, Trump's endorsement signals, and emerging primary polling poised to create separation in this crowded race.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$548,753,368
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $548.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.