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Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Market icon
Elections·Global Elections

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,598,830 Vol.

JD Vance 17.6%

Gavin Newsom 16.3%

Marco Rubio 10.7%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6.0%

Polymarket

$480,598,830 Vol.

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JD Vance

$9,520,749 Vol.

18%

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Gavin Newsom

$7,319,099 Vol.

16%

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Marco Rubio

$5,438,656 Vol.

11%

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$10,464,807 Vol.

6%

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Jon Ossoff

$3,082,853 Vol.

3%

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Kamala Harris

$6,621,825 Vol.

3%

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Tucker Carlson

$9,537,829 Vol.

3%

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Josh Shapiro

$5,342,219 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump

$6,666,522 Vol.

2%

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Andy Beshear

$15,570,863 Vol.

2%

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Pete Buttigieg

$3,480,482 Vol.

2%

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JB Pritzker

$10,160,874 Vol.

2%

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Ron DeSantis

$5,950,800 Vol.

2%

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James Talarico

$3,816,530 Vol.

1%

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Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

$5,711,318 Vol.

1%

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Michelle Obama

$13,409,142 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$22,109,865 Vol.

1%

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Gretchen Whitmer

$7,825,058 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$4,149,770 Vol.

1%

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Jamie Dimon

$7,321,944 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$31,483,881 Vol.

1%

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Wes Moore

$5,698,076 Vol.

1%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$8,531,484 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$21,139,697 Vol.

1%

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Ro Khanna

$5,871,382 Vol.

1%

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Thomas Massie

$3,462,588 Vol.

1%

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Tim Walz

$38,660,297 Vol.

1%

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Glenn Youngkin

$19,934,463 Vol.

1%

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Stephen Smith

$28,587,266 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$27,396,712 Vol.

1%

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Zohran Mamdani

$16,636,207 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$5,488,167 Vol.

1%

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LeBron James

$43,276,355 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,210,543 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$29,318,621 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$29,403,280 Vol.

1%

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, buoyed by his recent CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among Republicans and perceived inheritance of President Trump's base amid ongoing policy wins on economy and foreign affairs like Iran tensions. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.3%, propelled by commanding leads in early Democratic primary polls, including a trouncing of Kamala Harris in California, and book tours signaling ambitions post-2026 midterms. Senator Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects a donor-fueled surge after briefly overtaking Vance in betting markets last week, highlighting GOP establishment pushback. With primaries over two years away, the tight race stems from midterm uncertainties, potential Trump endorsements, and shifting scandal risks; strong 2026 results or field-clearing announcements could widen leads.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,598,830
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Vice President JD Vance holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2028 presidential election at 17.6%, buoyed by his recent CPAC straw poll victory at 53% among Republicans and perceived inheritance of President Trump's base amid ongoing policy wins on economy and foreign affairs like Iran tensions. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails closely at 16.3%, propelled by commanding leads in early Democratic primary polls, including a trouncing of Kamala Harris in California, and book tours signaling ambitions post-2026 midterms. Senator Marco Rubio's 10.7% reflects a donor-fueled surge after briefly overtaking Vance in betting markets last week, highlighting GOP establishment pushback. With primaries over two years away, the tight race stems from midterm uncertainties, potential Trump endorsements, and shifting scandal risks; strong 2026 results or field-clearing announcements could widen leads.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Volume
$480,598,830
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Presidential Election Winner 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JD Vance" at 18%, followed by "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has generated $480.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" is "JD Vance" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gavin Newsom" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Presidential Election Winner 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.